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ISTANBUL; The South Caucasus: A New Showdown For Iran

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  • ISTANBUL; The South Caucasus: A New Showdown For Iran

    THE SOUTH CAUCASUS: A NEW SHOWDOWN FOR IRAN
    by Hasan Selim Ozertem

    Today's Zaman
    March 13 2012
    Turkey

    The conflict between Iran's National Intelligence and Security
    Organization (SAVAK) and Israel's Institute for Intelligence and
    Special Operations (Mossad) has become more visible since the beginning
    of 2012.

    Iranian scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Rosha was assassinated in Tehran in
    January 2012. Following this incident, many stories appeared in the
    media regarding Mossad and Iran's search for retaliation.

    However, the interesting part of this story is that the parties
    have chosen the South Caucasus for this competition. According to
    Azerbaijani reports, two people linked to Iranian intelligence were
    arrested in January. The story became more complicated following the
    statements of officials that these two suspicious people were planning
    to attack the Israeli embassy in Azerbaijan and a Jewish rabbi. In
    response to this event, Iranian National Security and Foreign Policy
    Committee member Esmail Kowsari blamed Baku and claimed that Baku is
    a known safe haven for the CIA and Mossad. At the same time, Kowsari
    emphasized that they are uncomfortable with the activities of Israeli
    and American spies along Azerbaijan's border with Iran.

    In reality, bilateral relations between Israel and Azerbaijan have
    been developing for a long time. Apart from the mutual customs
    agreement signed in December 2011, the trade volume between the two
    countries recently totaled approximately $2 billion. Moreover, Israel
    and Azerbaijan signed a bilateral agreement related to the military
    sector. According to this agreement, worth $1.6 billion, Azerbaijan
    will receive drones and air defense systems from Israel. It is thought
    that Azerbaijan is trying to gain an advantage in the Karabakh conflict
    against Armenia by increasing its military capability. It is worth
    noting that, from many other countries, it chose to cooperate with
    Israel. Considering this choice, it is unknown how correct Iran's
    accusation is. Azerbaijani efforts to develop good relations with
    Israel can be considered a quite logical reply to Iranian initiatives
    to promote bilateral relations with Armenia in the Caucasus. However,
    considering Rosha's assassination in January, we can say that instead
    of following indirect balancing policies, Baku is now trying to send
    direct messages to Tehran.

    Baku won't host power struggles

    In the wake of the spy issue, Baku initially sent signals indicating
    they do not want their land becoming an area for power struggles.

    Furthermore, Baku is indicating its discomfort with Tehran's
    activities in the Caucasus. However, it should be noted that it
    is not the first time Baku has sent messages to Tehran in order to
    communicate its discomfort. According to Azerbaijani experts, Baku
    first showed changes in its position in November 2011, when it did
    not vote on the issue of Iranian human rights abuses. Experts state
    that although Azerbaijan has chosen not to participate in negative UN
    resolutions regarding its southern neighbor up to now, Baku is giving
    signals that it may change its position as a non-permanent member of
    the UN Security Council if Tehran does not change its behavior.

    Recently, it seems that Iran is not only blaming Azerbaijan for
    working in coordination with foreign intelligence agencies but is
    also seeking sanctions against Baku. Furthermore, recently Iran
    has been preparing to deport an Azerbaijani diplomat because of
    accusations that he supports the gay rights demonstrations planned
    for the upcoming Eurovision Song Contest in Baku.

    While the countries' politicians try to manage the tension between
    Azerbaijan and Iran in a controlled manner, there is another country
    -- Georgia -- that is also trying stay out of any sort of quarrel
    between Israel and Iran. Israeli authorities leveled charges against
    Iran after they found a magnet bomb hidden in a car belonging to
    an Israeli diplomat in Tbilisi and, on the same day, prevented an
    assassination attempt on an Israeli diplomat in New Delhi. It is
    interesting that the methods used to assassinate Iranian engineers
    and Israeli diplomats are quite similar.

    Georgia is wary of getting in the middle of the relations between Iran,
    Israel and the West. They experienced the difficulties of being caught
    between the West and Russia before and are still suffering from those
    difficulties. Nevertheless, after the Russo-Georgian War in 2008,
    Tbilisi has been trying to establish friendly relations with Iran
    by lifting visa requirements and enhancing cultural and economic
    relations. All of these efforts cause discomfort in Washington.

    Lincoln Mitchell from Columbia University indicates that the recent
    bilateral relations will not be long-lived. Moreover, he stated that
    considering the parliamentary elections this year and the presidential
    elections to be held in 2013, Georgia may have to reconsider its
    relations with Iran.

    Looking at the big picture, Iran is blamed for organizing
    assassinations against diplomats in various countries. These
    accusations hurt the Iranian image, and worries over the Caucasus
    are getting stronger. Following the rising tension in the Middle
    East due to the Arab Spring and the recent developments in the
    Caucasus, which generated a new balance after the Russo-Georgian
    War, some questions come to mind. Will these developments create a
    new system that divides countries into certain blocs? Or, are some
    trying to spread instability to this wide-ranging area? Regardless,
    one reality is that while Turkey has been basing its foreign policy
    on maintaining regional stability, undesirable regional tensions are
    dramatically arising just beyond its borders.

    *Hasan Selim Ozertem is a researcher on Eurasia and energy security
    at the International Strategic Research Organization (USAK).

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