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WHAT IF 2008 REPEATS?
Igor Muradyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics25830.html
Published: 13:53:43 - 16/04/2012
Does Russia have any claims to Armenia for its "inaction" during the
Ossetian conflict? There are similar claims and they are of only
political importance. In reality, Russia would hardly expect any
significant military assistance from Armenia.
Now Russia brings up this issue, especially on the occasion of
offering "condolences" to Georgia on behalf of Armenia, as a means of
pressure on Armenia and showing Armenia to its place as an unreliable
partner. The Russians are convinced that they have great rights to
such manipulations after the "great victory".
Now when illusions have vanished, it is obvious that had Armenia had
guarantees to divide Georgia, it would participate in the military
actions on the Russian side but Armenia did not have such guarantees
at that time and could not even get then. If similar actions were
there for the second time, Armenia would participate in them.
However, the split of Georgia does not have a long-term importance
for the interests of Armenia if at the same time the entire South
Caucasus, and first of Azerbaijan is not going to be redesigned. Iran
would support Russia and Armenia, which would lead to a serious crisis
and possible military clashes.
But would Turkey be involved in war? In that case, everything would
depend on what guarantees the United States would get in terms of the
immunity and security of military transit and energy corridor across
the South Caucasus. After the Russian-Georgian war it was noticed
that the United States soon signed an agreement with Russia on Central
Asia on using air corridors because the Americans and British became
convinced that Russia treated appropriately the energy transportation
and military objects in which the United States was interested.
After such redesign Armenia would be an irreplaceable partner to
Russia, and a lot of problems would be ruled out. Is Armenia ready
for this project? Perhaps it is. The problem is whether the elites
are ready or not.
Igor Muradyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics25830.html
Published: 13:53:43 - 16/04/2012
Does Russia have any claims to Armenia for its "inaction" during the
Ossetian conflict? There are similar claims and they are of only
political importance. In reality, Russia would hardly expect any
significant military assistance from Armenia.
Now Russia brings up this issue, especially on the occasion of
offering "condolences" to Georgia on behalf of Armenia, as a means of
pressure on Armenia and showing Armenia to its place as an unreliable
partner. The Russians are convinced that they have great rights to
such manipulations after the "great victory".
Now when illusions have vanished, it is obvious that had Armenia had
guarantees to divide Georgia, it would participate in the military
actions on the Russian side but Armenia did not have such guarantees
at that time and could not even get then. If similar actions were
there for the second time, Armenia would participate in them.
However, the split of Georgia does not have a long-term importance
for the interests of Armenia if at the same time the entire South
Caucasus, and first of Azerbaijan is not going to be redesigned. Iran
would support Russia and Armenia, which would lead to a serious crisis
and possible military clashes.
But would Turkey be involved in war? In that case, everything would
depend on what guarantees the United States would get in terms of the
immunity and security of military transit and energy corridor across
the South Caucasus. After the Russian-Georgian war it was noticed
that the United States soon signed an agreement with Russia on Central
Asia on using air corridors because the Americans and British became
convinced that Russia treated appropriately the energy transportation
and military objects in which the United States was interested.
After such redesign Armenia would be an irreplaceable partner to
Russia, and a lot of problems would be ruled out. Is Armenia ready
for this project? Perhaps it is. The problem is whether the elites
are ready or not.