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ALEKSANDER RAHR: "RUSSIA IS ALWAYS READY TO RESOLVE THE KARABAKH CONFLICT, IF IT MEETS ITS GEOPOLITICAL INTERESTS"
Orkhan Sattarov
Vestnik Kavkaza
May 15 2012
Russia
The German political analyst, expert of the German Council on Foreign
Policy, Alexander Rahr, told VK about prospects of the Russian policy
in the Caucasus.
- Alexander Glebovich, could you comment on the inauguration of
Vladimir Putin? First of all, on its influence on the Caucasus policy.
Will Russia play more active role in the settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict under Putin?
- It is difficult to say. I think, Russia is always ready, if it
meets its geopolitical interests, to begin more intensive settlement.
Everybody asks me, but there is no answer to the question. How
to settle the conflict? It is very difficult. Let's speak a simple
language. It taking away from Armenia the territory they had occupied
and make them withdraw their troops. Who and how will deal with this?
If it should happen, the decision should be made by America and
almost all members of the EU. Only in this case will pressure on
Armenia be effective.
- Is it realistic?
- I think it is absolutely unrealistic. First of all, the Europeans
have forgotten the conflict. It happened 25 years ago.
Secondly, it is difficult to imagine that the Armenian Diaspora won't
resist it. On the other hand, it is impossible to persuade Azerbaijan
to recognize the independence of Nagorny Karabakh. Who will pressure
Azerbaijan? Therefore, the discussions are not effective for 25 years.
Everybody says the conflict should be settled peacefully. But I don't
know what Russia could do in this situation. I think it is beneficial
for Russia to play a certain role in the conflict, as it takes its
own place in the region, as well as the Minsk Group.
- So nobody among geopolitical forces is interested in the conflict's
outcome?
- These are big geopolitical games. In fact, I have already stated
it that the only country that wants to change the status quo and
unfreeze the conflict is Azerbaijan. No one else wants it. In other
case it will lead to new clashes, and conflicts, and shifts which are
difficult to predict. This is the situation. I think Russia plays
for both teams. It supports Armenia, as Armenia is its long-term
historical ally. Without Russia there would be no Armenian statehood
more than 100 years ago. I think Armenians remember it, and Russia
understands it is the most reliable ally. At the same time, Russia
cannot break relations with Azerbaijan because of Nagorny Karabakh.
Azerbaijan became a new energy titan in the Caspian region, which
tries to construct alternative gas and oil routes by-passing Russia.
It deals with the Western countries directly on its energy policy; it
has brilliant relations with Turkey. Together with Turkey Azerbaijan
becomes even more powerful in the transport corridor of energy
resources. Russia wouldn't worsen relations with such a country.
Nothing can be made toward Azerbaijan and Armenia through force. That
is why Putin will continue the policy. On the other hand, what new did
Medvedev do while being President? I don't remember anything. Probably
the tone has changed, but the strategy was aimed at preservation and
security of national interests of Russia. It will continue.
- Do you think there are no plans on settlement of the conflict within
the strategy?
- I can say only in what direction. Suggest me direction of the
conflict settlement.
- Common peaceful living of Azerbaijani and Armenian communities of
Nagorny Karabakh under principles of territorial integrity and peoples'
right for self-identification.
- Either Armenia or Azerbaijan wants to own one territory. How
can the conflict be settled? You can take only one side without a
compromise. The only compromise which had been discussed for the
1990s is an exchange with territories. Armenia gives a part of its
territories to Azerbaijan and takes Nagorny Karabakh. The so-called
plan by Paul Gobble. But I think all sides have rejected the approach.
There is no other variant, however. We can discuss return of refugees
to Nagorny Karabakh, but Armenians are not interested in return of
Nagorny Karabakh Armenians to Armenia after 25 years. Everything can
be discussed theoretically, but the conflict needs real decisions. It
has to be solved! Just like the conflict in Cyprus has to be solved,
it lasts threefold longer than the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. But some
conflicts cannot be solved, cannot be unfrozen and settled peacefully.
Because the history of the conflict is difficult. I don't know
examples when after many years a conflict was unfrozen and settled
peacefully. I don't know... Maybe exchange by territories, recognition
of a confederation between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorny Karabakh.
These ideas were born in the 1990s, but nobody has turned to them,
they are not interesting for anyone. I think the conflict will be
settled by some other methods in 6 years under Russia's initiative.
- Another question is about the internal policy of Russia. Could the
current protest movement in Russia become a serious force influencing
political decisions making? What are prospects of them?
- I think Putin and the authorities must not tighten screws.
Putin is not Stalin or Brezhnev. Unlike the Western point of view,
I think that the countries of the post-Soviet area, except for
few Central Asian states, are in search for European lifestyle,
the European democracy model. In Russia and Ukraine the notion of
"sovereign democracy" appeared. It is democracy that is built from
above. However, the process is approaching liberalization, rather than
totalitarianism. If screws are tightened, they will be loosened later.
The power vertical built by Putin in 2003-2004 is being liberalized
at the moment. It is understandable that for some part of Russian
population needs more political freedoms. It concerns the new middle
class, young people who were raised after dissolution of the Soviet
Union. They don't want to be managed through Soviet methods. Thus,
protests will continue if these people do not feel that social
lifts are working, an alternative party exists, and the government
can be criticized. I believe Putin has to agree for a dialogue. The
parliamentary and presidential elections passed, and the next will
be in 4 and 6 years only. At the moment he has the majority in the
parliament. There is a whale of time to return to real democracy. At
the moment nobody urges to overthrow Putin, there is no alternative.
But dissatisfaction is growing.
Orkhan Sattarov
Vestnik Kavkaza
May 15 2012
Russia
The German political analyst, expert of the German Council on Foreign
Policy, Alexander Rahr, told VK about prospects of the Russian policy
in the Caucasus.
- Alexander Glebovich, could you comment on the inauguration of
Vladimir Putin? First of all, on its influence on the Caucasus policy.
Will Russia play more active role in the settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict under Putin?
- It is difficult to say. I think, Russia is always ready, if it
meets its geopolitical interests, to begin more intensive settlement.
Everybody asks me, but there is no answer to the question. How
to settle the conflict? It is very difficult. Let's speak a simple
language. It taking away from Armenia the territory they had occupied
and make them withdraw their troops. Who and how will deal with this?
If it should happen, the decision should be made by America and
almost all members of the EU. Only in this case will pressure on
Armenia be effective.
- Is it realistic?
- I think it is absolutely unrealistic. First of all, the Europeans
have forgotten the conflict. It happened 25 years ago.
Secondly, it is difficult to imagine that the Armenian Diaspora won't
resist it. On the other hand, it is impossible to persuade Azerbaijan
to recognize the independence of Nagorny Karabakh. Who will pressure
Azerbaijan? Therefore, the discussions are not effective for 25 years.
Everybody says the conflict should be settled peacefully. But I don't
know what Russia could do in this situation. I think it is beneficial
for Russia to play a certain role in the conflict, as it takes its
own place in the region, as well as the Minsk Group.
- So nobody among geopolitical forces is interested in the conflict's
outcome?
- These are big geopolitical games. In fact, I have already stated
it that the only country that wants to change the status quo and
unfreeze the conflict is Azerbaijan. No one else wants it. In other
case it will lead to new clashes, and conflicts, and shifts which are
difficult to predict. This is the situation. I think Russia plays
for both teams. It supports Armenia, as Armenia is its long-term
historical ally. Without Russia there would be no Armenian statehood
more than 100 years ago. I think Armenians remember it, and Russia
understands it is the most reliable ally. At the same time, Russia
cannot break relations with Azerbaijan because of Nagorny Karabakh.
Azerbaijan became a new energy titan in the Caspian region, which
tries to construct alternative gas and oil routes by-passing Russia.
It deals with the Western countries directly on its energy policy; it
has brilliant relations with Turkey. Together with Turkey Azerbaijan
becomes even more powerful in the transport corridor of energy
resources. Russia wouldn't worsen relations with such a country.
Nothing can be made toward Azerbaijan and Armenia through force. That
is why Putin will continue the policy. On the other hand, what new did
Medvedev do while being President? I don't remember anything. Probably
the tone has changed, but the strategy was aimed at preservation and
security of national interests of Russia. It will continue.
- Do you think there are no plans on settlement of the conflict within
the strategy?
- I can say only in what direction. Suggest me direction of the
conflict settlement.
- Common peaceful living of Azerbaijani and Armenian communities of
Nagorny Karabakh under principles of territorial integrity and peoples'
right for self-identification.
- Either Armenia or Azerbaijan wants to own one territory. How
can the conflict be settled? You can take only one side without a
compromise. The only compromise which had been discussed for the
1990s is an exchange with territories. Armenia gives a part of its
territories to Azerbaijan and takes Nagorny Karabakh. The so-called
plan by Paul Gobble. But I think all sides have rejected the approach.
There is no other variant, however. We can discuss return of refugees
to Nagorny Karabakh, but Armenians are not interested in return of
Nagorny Karabakh Armenians to Armenia after 25 years. Everything can
be discussed theoretically, but the conflict needs real decisions. It
has to be solved! Just like the conflict in Cyprus has to be solved,
it lasts threefold longer than the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. But some
conflicts cannot be solved, cannot be unfrozen and settled peacefully.
Because the history of the conflict is difficult. I don't know
examples when after many years a conflict was unfrozen and settled
peacefully. I don't know... Maybe exchange by territories, recognition
of a confederation between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorny Karabakh.
These ideas were born in the 1990s, but nobody has turned to them,
they are not interesting for anyone. I think the conflict will be
settled by some other methods in 6 years under Russia's initiative.
- Another question is about the internal policy of Russia. Could the
current protest movement in Russia become a serious force influencing
political decisions making? What are prospects of them?
- I think Putin and the authorities must not tighten screws.
Putin is not Stalin or Brezhnev. Unlike the Western point of view,
I think that the countries of the post-Soviet area, except for
few Central Asian states, are in search for European lifestyle,
the European democracy model. In Russia and Ukraine the notion of
"sovereign democracy" appeared. It is democracy that is built from
above. However, the process is approaching liberalization, rather than
totalitarianism. If screws are tightened, they will be loosened later.
The power vertical built by Putin in 2003-2004 is being liberalized
at the moment. It is understandable that for some part of Russian
population needs more political freedoms. It concerns the new middle
class, young people who were raised after dissolution of the Soviet
Union. They don't want to be managed through Soviet methods. Thus,
protests will continue if these people do not feel that social
lifts are working, an alternative party exists, and the government
can be criticized. I believe Putin has to agree for a dialogue. The
parliamentary and presidential elections passed, and the next will
be in 4 and 6 years only. At the moment he has the majority in the
parliament. There is a whale of time to return to real democracy. At
the moment nobody urges to overthrow Putin, there is no alternative.
But dissatisfaction is growing.