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HILLARY CLINTON'S VISIT TO GEORGIA - WHAT TO EXPECT
by KENNETH S. YALOWITZ
Democracy & Freedom Watch
http://dfwatch.net/hillary-clintons-visit-to-georgia-what-to-expect-83715
June 1 2012
Secretary of State Clinton's visit to Georgia and the South Caucasus
June 3-6 underscores both the importance of the region to the US
and the pressing political and security issues in the Caucasus,
which could involve the West, writes Kenneth S. Yalowitz, former U.S.
Ambassador to Georgia.
The growing Russian military presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia,
the lack of progress in the Geneva talks and the upcoming Georgian
parliamentary and presidential elections, which are vitally important
to the future of Georgian democracy, will be high on her agenda in
Tbilisi. The recent NATO Summit in Chicago affirmed the open door for
Georgian NATO membership but also the need first for more reforms on
the part of Georgia. I would expect the Secretary to emphasize that
these elections will be a crucial test of Georgia's commitment to a
free, fair and transparent electoral process with the world watching to
see a transition of presidential power through the democratic process
and the seating in parliament of a vibrant opposition committed to a
democratic future for Georgia. She will thank Georgia again for its
significnt contributions to allied forces in Afghanistan and Iraq
and its support for the Northern Distribution Network, and review
progress being made in the bilateral defense cooperation sphere. With
Vladimir Putin again assuming the Russian presidency, the unresolved
situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia will be discussed along with
the state of Russian-Georgian relations. She will reaffirm US support
for Georgia and refusal to recognize the "independence" of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia but may explore whether the recent Georgian assent
to Russian membership in the WTO can be built upon in re-establishing
a Georgian dialog with Russia. The spread of insurgency and Islamic
militant terrorism in the North Caucasus will likely be covered as
well. I would expect Secretary Clinton to request Georgia not to
exacerbate tensions in the North Caucasus and help prevent terrorist
acts there in the runup to the 2014 Sochi Olympics.
She will caution against returning to the scenario in late 1999 when
Russia used the Pankisi Gorge situation to threaten military action
in Georgia. No one wants to see a repeat of the events of August, 2008.
The other threatening situation in the South Caucasus is the
danger of renewed hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan over
Nagorno-Karabakh. The Minsk Group process has stalled and an arms
buildup is proceeding on both sides. The situation on the cease fire
line is not stable and the rhetoric on both sides does not contribute
to a peaceful outcome. Renewed hostilities could possibly bring Russia,
Turkey and Iran into the fray creating a very ominous international
crisis. This subject will highlight the Secretary's discussions in
Armenia and Azerbaijan where she will certainly call for moderation
and de-escalation of the arms buildup and rhetoric. She will likely
also seek Georgia's views on this subject as well as on maintaing
the unfettered flow of Caspian energy resources.
In sum, the Secretary's visit is aimed at putting a spotlight on the
important issues in the Caucasus and asserting US interests there as
Putin again takes office.
by KENNETH S. YALOWITZ
Democracy & Freedom Watch
http://dfwatch.net/hillary-clintons-visit-to-georgia-what-to-expect-83715
June 1 2012
Secretary of State Clinton's visit to Georgia and the South Caucasus
June 3-6 underscores both the importance of the region to the US
and the pressing political and security issues in the Caucasus,
which could involve the West, writes Kenneth S. Yalowitz, former U.S.
Ambassador to Georgia.
The growing Russian military presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia,
the lack of progress in the Geneva talks and the upcoming Georgian
parliamentary and presidential elections, which are vitally important
to the future of Georgian democracy, will be high on her agenda in
Tbilisi. The recent NATO Summit in Chicago affirmed the open door for
Georgian NATO membership but also the need first for more reforms on
the part of Georgia. I would expect the Secretary to emphasize that
these elections will be a crucial test of Georgia's commitment to a
free, fair and transparent electoral process with the world watching to
see a transition of presidential power through the democratic process
and the seating in parliament of a vibrant opposition committed to a
democratic future for Georgia. She will thank Georgia again for its
significnt contributions to allied forces in Afghanistan and Iraq
and its support for the Northern Distribution Network, and review
progress being made in the bilateral defense cooperation sphere. With
Vladimir Putin again assuming the Russian presidency, the unresolved
situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia will be discussed along with
the state of Russian-Georgian relations. She will reaffirm US support
for Georgia and refusal to recognize the "independence" of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia but may explore whether the recent Georgian assent
to Russian membership in the WTO can be built upon in re-establishing
a Georgian dialog with Russia. The spread of insurgency and Islamic
militant terrorism in the North Caucasus will likely be covered as
well. I would expect Secretary Clinton to request Georgia not to
exacerbate tensions in the North Caucasus and help prevent terrorist
acts there in the runup to the 2014 Sochi Olympics.
She will caution against returning to the scenario in late 1999 when
Russia used the Pankisi Gorge situation to threaten military action
in Georgia. No one wants to see a repeat of the events of August, 2008.
The other threatening situation in the South Caucasus is the
danger of renewed hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan over
Nagorno-Karabakh. The Minsk Group process has stalled and an arms
buildup is proceeding on both sides. The situation on the cease fire
line is not stable and the rhetoric on both sides does not contribute
to a peaceful outcome. Renewed hostilities could possibly bring Russia,
Turkey and Iran into the fray creating a very ominous international
crisis. This subject will highlight the Secretary's discussions in
Armenia and Azerbaijan where she will certainly call for moderation
and de-escalation of the arms buildup and rhetoric. She will likely
also seek Georgia's views on this subject as well as on maintaing
the unfettered flow of Caspian energy resources.
In sum, the Secretary's visit is aimed at putting a spotlight on the
important issues in the Caucasus and asserting US interests there as
Putin again takes office.