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Journal of Turkish Weekly
June 14 2012
The Nagorno-Karabakh Resolution Process at the Glance
Thursday, 14 June 2012
by Nasrin Suleymanli, Contributor
2012 will be symbolized by the electoral process of the co-chairs of
the Minsk Group, which is involved in the resolution process of the
Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Thus, the problem in the region has been
frozen for a while. France and Russia have elected their presidents.
According to one analytical calculation, the U.S. electoral process
will result in Obama's victory. The expert also predicted a more
decisive Obama victory if he can thoroughly alleviate fears regarding
Iran. However, Obama's policy toward the South Caucasus will not
differ from Bush's politics. Currently, the Middle East and Pacific
regions are more important for the U.S. than the South Caucasus.
Over the past few years, when Obama and Medvedev had been elected,
there was hope that the intentions of leaders related to the
resolution of the conflict in the region would not just be in their
areas of curiosity but also within areas of international concern. It
was thought that their approaches to the conflict could be in a
different format. Within the strong cooperation of France and the
U.S., during his period in the Russian presidency, Medvedev organized
nine official trilateral visits with Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders.
As we remember, after August 2008 Russia tried to play the main role
as a stabilizer in the region. Despite that, nothing happened.
The recent visit of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to the
South Caucasus promised to apply pressure on the Minsk Group in the
resolution process of the NK conflict in the coming June 18 Paris
visit of the conflicting sides' leaders. Additionally, Clinton was
intent on Russia's immediate withdrawal of armed troops from the
territory of the South Caucasus. Russia did not remain silent and
reacted immediately. A confrontation on the border of Armenia and
Azerbaijan erupted again. Almost ten soldiers from both sides were
killed, and some hospitalized. Russia even began to test its missiles
.Let us note that Russia withdrew its 25,000 armed troops from
Chechnya to Dagestan, closer to the border of the South Caucasus.
Despite this, it has large amounts of military equipment and troops in
Armenia. Even the military spokesman, Col. Igor Gorbul, told that
Russian fighter jets stationed at a base in Armenia have conducted
about 300 training flights since the beginning of 2012, and right now
have increased the number of flying hours by more than 20 percent from
last year.
Next year, Armenia and Azerbaijan's presidential elections will start
their electoral process and distract from the conflict resolution
process. But the main maneuver will be in 2014 with the new active
co-chairs of the Minsk Group and newly-elected presidents of the
conflicting sides. It will be up to them to draw a roadmap to further
the resolution process. And taking into consideration the Iran-Israel
confrontation in the region, it is possible to predict a surprise
change in the NK conflict resolution process within the Caucasus
context. The third decade of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict promises an
altering of the status of quo.
Thursday, 14 June 2012
Journal of Turkish Weekly
http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/137298/the-nagorno-karabakh-resolution-process-at-the-glance.html
June 14 2012
The Nagorno-Karabakh Resolution Process at the Glance
Thursday, 14 June 2012
by Nasrin Suleymanli, Contributor
2012 will be symbolized by the electoral process of the co-chairs of
the Minsk Group, which is involved in the resolution process of the
Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Thus, the problem in the region has been
frozen for a while. France and Russia have elected their presidents.
According to one analytical calculation, the U.S. electoral process
will result in Obama's victory. The expert also predicted a more
decisive Obama victory if he can thoroughly alleviate fears regarding
Iran. However, Obama's policy toward the South Caucasus will not
differ from Bush's politics. Currently, the Middle East and Pacific
regions are more important for the U.S. than the South Caucasus.
Over the past few years, when Obama and Medvedev had been elected,
there was hope that the intentions of leaders related to the
resolution of the conflict in the region would not just be in their
areas of curiosity but also within areas of international concern. It
was thought that their approaches to the conflict could be in a
different format. Within the strong cooperation of France and the
U.S., during his period in the Russian presidency, Medvedev organized
nine official trilateral visits with Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders.
As we remember, after August 2008 Russia tried to play the main role
as a stabilizer in the region. Despite that, nothing happened.
The recent visit of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to the
South Caucasus promised to apply pressure on the Minsk Group in the
resolution process of the NK conflict in the coming June 18 Paris
visit of the conflicting sides' leaders. Additionally, Clinton was
intent on Russia's immediate withdrawal of armed troops from the
territory of the South Caucasus. Russia did not remain silent and
reacted immediately. A confrontation on the border of Armenia and
Azerbaijan erupted again. Almost ten soldiers from both sides were
killed, and some hospitalized. Russia even began to test its missiles
.Let us note that Russia withdrew its 25,000 armed troops from
Chechnya to Dagestan, closer to the border of the South Caucasus.
Despite this, it has large amounts of military equipment and troops in
Armenia. Even the military spokesman, Col. Igor Gorbul, told that
Russian fighter jets stationed at a base in Armenia have conducted
about 300 training flights since the beginning of 2012, and right now
have increased the number of flying hours by more than 20 percent from
last year.
Next year, Armenia and Azerbaijan's presidential elections will start
their electoral process and distract from the conflict resolution
process. But the main maneuver will be in 2014 with the new active
co-chairs of the Minsk Group and newly-elected presidents of the
conflicting sides. It will be up to them to draw a roadmap to further
the resolution process. And taking into consideration the Iran-Israel
confrontation in the region, it is possible to predict a surprise
change in the NK conflict resolution process within the Caucasus
context. The third decade of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict promises an
altering of the status of quo.
Thursday, 14 June 2012
Journal of Turkish Weekly
http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/137298/the-nagorno-karabakh-resolution-process-at-the-glance.html