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  • Some Aspects Of The Development Of Military And Political Situation

    SOME ASPECTS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF MILITARY AND POLITICAL SITUATION ROUND THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT

    http://noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=6633
    02.08.2012

    Sergei Sargsyan
    Deputy Head of the Center for Political Studies,
    “Noravank” Foundation; Lieutenant Colonel (Ret.)

    Currently military and political situation round Nagorno-Karabakh
    conflict is mainly characterized by a general influence of the
    following factors:

    - Combat readiness and fighting capacity of the armed forces of the
    conflicting parties, sustaining of the acceptable balance of
    offensive/defensive arms between them;

    - Availability of a sufficient level of mobilization resources,
    including Diaspora potential by Armenia, NKR and Azerbaijan;

    - Military and technical, military and political cooperation of
    Armenia and Azerbaijan with neighboring states; their direct
    involvement in military and political blocks;

    - Tendency of development and availability\absence of threats to the
    domestic political situation in all three states;

    - Level of interest in the conflict on behalf of the regional and
    global powers;

    - Dynamics and efficiency of the negotiations process;

    - Condition and dynamics of economic development of Armenia, NKR and
    Azerbaijan;

    - Development of military and political situation in the Black Sea,
    Caspian and Middle East regions in general.

    Amid the situation when a process of accumulation of an experience of
    appearance of new states - from East Timor and Kosovo to Abkhazia,
    South Ossetia, Eritrea and South Sudan - with different levels of
    recognition, the Armenian sides of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are
    sure that Azerbaijan will not manage to attain its separate
    advantages, and that time is not on Azerbaijan’s side either.

    This is also proved by drastic changes in the attitude towards NKC of
    a wide range of international organizations which previously gave
    absolute preference to the principle of a territorial integrity of
    Azerbaijan and did not go into judicial details of appearance of
    Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which proceeded in compliance with the
    existing laws in the period of collapse of the USSR.

    Such a tendency is among other factors which are conditioned by the
    dynamics of the development of domestic political situation in
    Azerbaijan which is on the one hand characterized by the public
    discontent by the authoritarian state control methods and on the
    other hand by the intensification of the process of Islamization of
    the society.

    The latter factor make Azerbaijan more vulnerable to the influence of
    the “wave of revolutions” coming from the Muslim
    countries of Africa and Middle East, because these states, under the
    availability of definite social and cultural, ethnic-national,
    social-economic and public and political differences, are united by
    the practice of using the mobilization potential of the so-called
    “Muslim street” - most socially unprotected part of the
    population which is more exposed to the reception of the Islamist
    propaganda as an alternative to the ideology of the ruling regime.

    The current interests of the key actors of the global politics, which
    are in variance to a large extent, due to a number of reasons
    objectively promote non-admission of initiating a force solution of
    the conflict by Azerbaijan.

    For the EU Azerbaijan is of some interest first of all as a source of
    energy carriers which can be alternative to the Russian, and as a
    corridor for gas and oil supply from the countries of Central Asia
    by-passing the territory of Russia. Its role has become even more
    important against the background of increasing instability in the
    countries of North Africa and Middle East and especially in the
    context of developments round Iran which was manifested in the form
    of imposing and gradual strengthening of economic and political
    sanctions, not to speak of a possibility of carrying out military
    operation against the Islamic Republic.

    The interest of the United States (and Israel) is supplemented by
    assigning a minor but important role to Azerbaijan in case of
    carrying out military operation against Iran.

    Russia is interested in close partner relations with Azerbaijan first
    of all in the context of mutually advantageous cooperation on the
    Caspian Sea, not-allowing the warships of non-Caspian states in its
    water zone, as well as prolonging the lease agreement of
    “Daryal” Information-analytical center (phased-array
    early warning radar) dislocated near the population center of Gabala,
    which expires in 2012 (it is rather of military and political than
    military and technical interest).

    But the prospects of such economic cooperation with the EU and
    military cooperation with the USA and Russia, directly depends on
    preservation of at least relative stability in the zone of
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, maintaining of current status-quo and
    continuation of negotiation process within the framework of the OSCE
    Minks Group, which has been stated for many times on different levels
    and from different political grounds. It means that it depends on an
    absolute exclusion of military and political risks connected with
    escalation of the military actions in the zone of the
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

    Consequently, resumption of military actions by Azerbaijan may be
    initiated exclusively under the influence of growing threatening
    tendencies of the development of domestic political situation in the
    country, prospects of loosing a control over the country by the
    political elite of the Azerbaijani Republic and fear for their
    political, and may be even physical survival.

    It should be mentioned here that the scenario of escalation of
    tension in the zone of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be triggered
    only by Azerbaijani party as resumption of military actions by
    Nagorno-Karabakh Republic:

    - firstly, will bring to the loss of a whole political and diplomatic
    groundwork and all the achievements of the Armenian diplomacy for
    recent 20 years on explanation, prospects and historical background
    of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict;

    - secondly, is irrational from the military and political viewpoints.

    There is no practical sense in changing current and established
    configuration of a confrontation line by the Armenian parties - today
    it is the most optimal for the minimization of the defense expenses -
    mobilization and technical. The balance of strength today is mainly
    provided due to the modern and consistent engineering infrastructure
    of deep layer in depth defense. Going beyond this line will cause
    undesirable and may be even catastrophic for Armenia and NKR
    rebalancing in favour of Azerbaijan.

    - thirdly, it differs drastically from the purpose of Yerevan and
    Stepanakert to obtain recognition of the independence of the NKR
    through a wide democratization of authorities and society, which sets
    the NKR apart from Azerbaijan with its tendency to strengthen
    authoritarian methods of control.

    - fourthly, resumption of military actions by Armenian parties will
    put a pressure on the economies of the Republic of Armenia and NKR,
    bring to a breakdown of social and economic and moral and
    psychological condition of the population. In order not to allow
    resulting of this situation in uncontrollable political processes,
    very forcible arguments of resumption of war should be presented;
    objective and real goals and tasks should be set, meanwhile today
    there are no such goals, tasks and motivation.

    Real distribution of political forces in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh
    Republic, free functioning of oppositional parties and movements,
    democratic way of transition of authority by means of elections (in
    contrast to dynastic moves, like in Azerbaijan), does not threaten
    domestic destabilization, create necessity of artificial shift of the
    attention of the Armenian society to the situation in the conflict
    zone or demand an occasion for strengthening of the control over the
    public and political life in the country under the precise of
    “being at war”.

    Besides, the Azerbaijani authorities need softening of the critics -
    on behalf of both nominal secular opposition and real gaining in
    weight Islamic or Islamist opposition - of their actions taken in the
    direction of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution by any means -
    both diplomatic and military - concerning not keeping their promises
    and factual useless embezzlement/spending of budget funds directed to
    the strengthening of the force structures of the state.

    Absence of any tangible results from the armaments race carried out
    for many years, sounding of numerous threats of using the armed
    forces for returning “20% of occupied territories”,
    without substantiating it by real strengthening of combating activity
    in the conflict zone, is considered by opposition as a direct
    indicator of non-efficiency of the incumbent authorities, large-scale
    plundering of the military budget on the state level and
    strengthening of the security agencies only for the reason of
    self-preservation of a ruling elite.

    At the same time escalation of tension in the conflict zone against
    the background of a continuing race of armaments, supplemented by the
    policy of promising a military revenge and enrooting of the image of
    the enemy-Armenian, is dangerous because very soon it may come out of
    control and spin up autonomously.

    According to the statement of the Minister of Defence of
    Nagorno-Karabakh Movses Hakobyan, Azerbaijani side mounts tension at
    the front line year after year: in the first six months of this year
    the number of cease fire regime violation cases by Azerbaijan has
    doubled as compared to the same period of last year and the number of
    diversions has quadrupled. In the first six months of the last year
    enemy arranged two diversions and this year four diversions have been
    registered1.

    Such provocations tend to obtain some military and political goals
    for both domestic and foreign political purposes, such as:

    - exposure of

    * a level of battle readiness and combat effectiveness of the units
    of the Armed Forces of the NKR and Republic of Armenia;
    * system of defence of the Army of Defence of the NKR, mode of the
    protection of the state frontier of the RA; density of firepower
    at lines of engineering facilities;
    * tactics and operational flexibility of the units of the Army of
    Defence of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armed Forces of the RA;

    - writing off non-combat losses among the personnel of the armed
    forces of Azerbaijan for the sporadic minor actions and mutual
    exchange of fire;

    - presenting such combat activities to the Azerbaijani society as an
    indicator of military build-up and justification of mismatch of the
    stated rates of the economic growth of Azerbaijan with the real
    improvement of the social and economic condition of broad layers of
    population;

    - sustaining in the society of Azerbaijan a psychological
    “state of war”- revanchist organizations and individual
    activists state about the reduction of its level among the modern
    Azerbaijani youth;

    - justification of authoritarianism in domestic policy, restriction
    of the activity of the public and political, human rights
    organizations, freedom of expression as well as their possible
    stiffening in the future;

    - attraction/retention of the attention of the international
    community at the issue of pendency of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

    At the same time the ruling elite in Azerbaijan should realize that
    the escalation of the military situation in the zone of
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict plays into hand of the Islamic and Islamist
    opposition, because, first of all almost any scenario of development
    of the military actions, excluding a “Blitzkrieg”, will
    affect the stability of the ruling regime, and secondly, it will
    become a convenient occasion to turn for help to the Islamic
    countries, receiving financial support from them (in some cases
    bypassing official state structures) as well as recruitment for
    military actions human resources, which mostly adhere Islamist
    ideology and proved their mobility during the events in Libya and
    Syria in 2011-20122.

    The appeals of the Islamic Party of Azerbaijan to declare martial law
    in the country and declare jihad3 prove that the Islamist opposition
    in Azerbaijan has stirred up for recent years; in August it
    established the “Organization of Karabakh Resistance”4,
    which acts alongside with “secular” organizations of the
    same kind, and the most active and odious among them is the
    “Organization of Liberation of Karabakh”.

    Increase in number of the revanchist statements by the
    representatives of the Azerbaijani authorities, threats to withdraw
    from the negotiations process which is held through the intermediary
    of the OSCE Minsk group and to solve the conflict by military means
    caused the correction of the mode of military and technical
    cooperation not only with Azerbaijan but with Armenia either. Despite
    the concern expressed by Baku regarding fomenting tension in
    Azerbaijani-Iranian relations and using it as a pretext for strike
    heavy arms build up, a tendency of tightening of control over the
    stock-list of the arms and military equipments tap to Azerbaijan can
    be observed. The latest example is the decision of the Department of
    State of the United States to remove Azerbaijan from the list of
    countries eligible to purchase American military equipment, which was
    taken on the assumption of justified anxiety that it might be used
    against Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh5.

    And alternatively, possible negative aftermaths in case of increasing
    military and technical imbalance between Armenian and Azerbaijani
    conflicting parties resulted in reconsideration of the restrictions
    to the stock list of heavy attacking arms tap to Armenia by Russia
    within the framework of Military and Technical partnership of the
    CSTO member countries and increasing of the level of military and
    political cooperation by two parties.

    Formation of deceptive feeling of military dominance in the
    atmosphere of military euphoria in isolation from the realities and
    tendencies of the regional and global policy should not tempt
    Azerbaijan to use power in the zone of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, at
    least taking into consideration a negative experience of the
    authorities of the neighboring Georgia which went through such
    psycho-emotional condition on the eve of war in August 2008.

    1 http://panorama.am/ru/politics/2012/07/09/m-hakobyan/, 9 Eюля
    2012C.

    2 Председатель eсламской партEE aзербайдOана: В случае войны в
    Карабахе дOEхад обязателен для каOдоCо мусульманEна.

    http://www.salamnews.org/ru news/read/8421/eksklyuziv-predsedatel-islamskoy-partii-azerbaydana-v-sluchae-voyn
    i-v-karabaxe-dixad-obyazatelen-dlya-kajdogo-musulmanina/, 20 мая
    2010C.

    3 , прEзывает eсламская партEя
    aзербайдOана. http://www.zerkalo.az/2009-07-17/politics, 17 Eюля
    2009C.

    4Azeri Press Agency, 02 авCуста 2010C.,
    http://ru.apa.az/print.php?id=169031.

    5 http://news.am/rus/news/111528.html, 29 Eюня 2012C.

    “Globus” analytical journal, #8, 2012

    Return

    __________________________________________________ __________________________
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