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US IS TRYING TO MAKE ARMENIA ITS ALLY IN THE REGION: TRUMAN NATIONAL SECURITY PROJECT
http://armenpress.am/eng/news/694161/us-is-trying-to-make-armenia-its-ally-in-the-region-truman-national-security-project.html
14:49, 25 September, 2012
YEREVAN, SEPTEMBER 25, ARMENPRESS: Most Americans wouldn't be shocked
to learn that the largest American embassy in the world is in Baghdad,
Iraq. But the second-largest is in a surprising place: Armenia. It
begs the question: why? The Truman Project's Daniel Gaynor studying US
foreign policy, energy security and democracy issues in the Caucasus
region came forth with the announcement, Armenpress reports.
"The best explanation is a real estate mantra: location, location,
location. Armenia, a landlocked country with just three million
people, might be in the roughest neighborhood in the world. But in
America's eyes, it might be in the most important position of any
US ally to advance President Obama's foreign policy agenda.What it
lacks in natural resources-it has little oil, gas or jewels-it makes
up for in geography. Few countries are in better position to shape
US foreign policy than Armenia.Armenia borders Turkey, Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Iran. As a part of the former Soviet Union, it relies
on nearby Russia extensively for trade and military backing. The US
has a significant stake in all five countries, and Armenia is now
coming into view as a potentially potent lever to advance American
aims.That is, if the Armenians can be won over.As the US tries
to woo Armenia to become a stronger ally in the region, the term
"geostrategic" has never been more apt. Armenia is literally at the
center of a number of countries that Washington considers among its
top priorities. As President Obama tries to accomplish key foreign
policy objectives-like preventing Iran from attaining nuclear bombs or
seeing democracy flourish in Russia-he's got to encourage Armenia to
play along.To Armenia's south, one such issue is unfolding in Iran's
nuclear centrifuges. Last week, a media skirmish between the US and
Israel boiled over when Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu,
stated publicly that America had no "moral right" to say whether or
not Israel could bomb Iran to prevent it from developing a nuclear
weapon. President Obama reportedly called Netanyahu at 3AM to quell
tensions.America is racing to develop every diplomatic pressure point
it can on Iran, lest Israel launch a preemptive attack and embroil
America in a third Middle East war in ten years. One of those pressure
points goes straight through Armenia.While the US has cut off formal
relations with Iran-Washington talks through Switzerland's embassy
there-it's no secret that it employs a variety of foreign policy
crowbars to influence and destabilize Iran's ruling regime. Some,
like President Obama's latest round of economic sanctions, are
well known. Partnering with Armenia is not, but could have a major
impact. Through economic and diplomatic incentives, the US is actively
trying to shape Armenia into an ally. As President Obama seeks to
economically isolate Iran-his sanctions have cut the value of Iran
currency in half-he is trying to regionally isolate the regime,
as well. Armenia is key to that strategy.For Armenia, the game is
far less simple. Partnering with the US-with whom it has a good,
but not great, relationship-could alienate the few friends Armenia
has left in the South Caucasus region. It wants military cooperation
with Russia, but economic access to the west.While it has tried to
deepen relations with the European Union and the US, Armenia's two
best friends at the moment are arguably the US's most challenging
adversaries: Russia and Iran.
That's not necessarily because of shared ideologies, or even shared
interests; it's because Armenia doesn't have many friends to pick
from.Of its four neighbors, two-Turkey and Azerbaijan- have have closed
off their borders to Armenia. To go on a road trip, every Armenian
must pass through either Tbilisi, Georgia or Tehran, Iran.Why the
frosty reception? Turkey, which the New York Times recently called
"the historic nemesis of the Armenians," is still steaming mad over
the negative PR associated with Armenian Genocide. The Turks claim
rogue military elements are responsible; Armenians believe the Turkish
government is reluctant to take the blame.In either interpretation,
the facts are stark: about 1.5 million Armenians perished in a war with
Turkey between 1915 and 1918. The Turks closed off its border in 1993,
and with it, a significant chunk of Armenia's economy disappeared. In
the decades since, Armenia has pressed for international recognition
of the genocide-and rightfully so-but that has only stoked the fire
with the Turks.But, while one would think that the genocide rift is
what led Turkey to close off its border, it's not. Instead, Turkey
is standing in solidarity with another neighbor over a contested
territory.Azerbaijan, another fromer Soviet republic, shut its borders
with Armenia after the two battled over an Armenian-populated enclave
in Azerbaijan, called Nagorno-Karabakh, in the 1990â~@²s. Today,
the territory remains a "semi-autonomous" area; meaning that the
Azeris want it back, the Armenians believe they control it, and the
Karabakhtis has declared independence (which no country has formally
recognized).Meanwhile, the relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan
is sliding downhill. Last week, Azerbaijan made a deal with Hungary
to extradite a convicted Azeri murderer. (The man, eight years ago,
nearly decapitated a sleeping Armenian serviceman with an axe at a
NATO-sponsored English class.) He was returned under the condition
that he would serve at least 25 more years in jail.Instead, as the
New York Times put it, he received "a new apartment, eight years
of back pay, a promotion to the rank of major and the status of a
national hero." Uproar in Armenia ensued. Armenia's President released
a statement warning, "The Armenians must not be underestimated. We
don't want a war, but if we have to, we will fight and win.Meanwhile,
Azerbaijan is enjoying the windfall from oil exports. Israel, in
particular, has strengthened relations with the Azeris, purchasing
30 percent of their oil from them, as well as selling them over $1.5
billion in military supplies. The US is also a buyer of Azeri oil. As
the New York Times points out, Azerbaijan invested more money in
its military than Armenia's entire state budget last year. Hardly
the sign of harmonious relations to come.So far, Armenia's walked
a diplomatic tightrope with skill. As my Lonely Planet travel book
explains, "Despite its limited resources, Armenia has become a master
at geopolitics.
What other country in the world can say it maintains good relations
with the US, Russia and Iran?Given the cards they're dealt, Armenia has
been a remarkable success story. If America hopes to engender greater
cooperation, it's got to sweeten the deal-through trade agreements,
offering economic reforms and encouraging private sector development
in Armenia. Armenia became independent in 1991. Two decades later,
it's still trying to find its footing in the region. It may not have
gold, oil, gas or jewels to give to the US. But, instead, it may have
something more useful: a strategic position in the most critical--and
potentially most dangerous--region in the world.
http://armenpress.am/eng/news/694161/us-is-trying-to-make-armenia-its-ally-in-the-region-truman-national-security-project.html
14:49, 25 September, 2012
YEREVAN, SEPTEMBER 25, ARMENPRESS: Most Americans wouldn't be shocked
to learn that the largest American embassy in the world is in Baghdad,
Iraq. But the second-largest is in a surprising place: Armenia. It
begs the question: why? The Truman Project's Daniel Gaynor studying US
foreign policy, energy security and democracy issues in the Caucasus
region came forth with the announcement, Armenpress reports.
"The best explanation is a real estate mantra: location, location,
location. Armenia, a landlocked country with just three million
people, might be in the roughest neighborhood in the world. But in
America's eyes, it might be in the most important position of any
US ally to advance President Obama's foreign policy agenda.What it
lacks in natural resources-it has little oil, gas or jewels-it makes
up for in geography. Few countries are in better position to shape
US foreign policy than Armenia.Armenia borders Turkey, Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Iran. As a part of the former Soviet Union, it relies
on nearby Russia extensively for trade and military backing. The US
has a significant stake in all five countries, and Armenia is now
coming into view as a potentially potent lever to advance American
aims.That is, if the Armenians can be won over.As the US tries
to woo Armenia to become a stronger ally in the region, the term
"geostrategic" has never been more apt. Armenia is literally at the
center of a number of countries that Washington considers among its
top priorities. As President Obama tries to accomplish key foreign
policy objectives-like preventing Iran from attaining nuclear bombs or
seeing democracy flourish in Russia-he's got to encourage Armenia to
play along.To Armenia's south, one such issue is unfolding in Iran's
nuclear centrifuges. Last week, a media skirmish between the US and
Israel boiled over when Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu,
stated publicly that America had no "moral right" to say whether or
not Israel could bomb Iran to prevent it from developing a nuclear
weapon. President Obama reportedly called Netanyahu at 3AM to quell
tensions.America is racing to develop every diplomatic pressure point
it can on Iran, lest Israel launch a preemptive attack and embroil
America in a third Middle East war in ten years. One of those pressure
points goes straight through Armenia.While the US has cut off formal
relations with Iran-Washington talks through Switzerland's embassy
there-it's no secret that it employs a variety of foreign policy
crowbars to influence and destabilize Iran's ruling regime. Some,
like President Obama's latest round of economic sanctions, are
well known. Partnering with Armenia is not, but could have a major
impact. Through economic and diplomatic incentives, the US is actively
trying to shape Armenia into an ally. As President Obama seeks to
economically isolate Iran-his sanctions have cut the value of Iran
currency in half-he is trying to regionally isolate the regime,
as well. Armenia is key to that strategy.For Armenia, the game is
far less simple. Partnering with the US-with whom it has a good,
but not great, relationship-could alienate the few friends Armenia
has left in the South Caucasus region. It wants military cooperation
with Russia, but economic access to the west.While it has tried to
deepen relations with the European Union and the US, Armenia's two
best friends at the moment are arguably the US's most challenging
adversaries: Russia and Iran.
That's not necessarily because of shared ideologies, or even shared
interests; it's because Armenia doesn't have many friends to pick
from.Of its four neighbors, two-Turkey and Azerbaijan- have have closed
off their borders to Armenia. To go on a road trip, every Armenian
must pass through either Tbilisi, Georgia or Tehran, Iran.Why the
frosty reception? Turkey, which the New York Times recently called
"the historic nemesis of the Armenians," is still steaming mad over
the negative PR associated with Armenian Genocide. The Turks claim
rogue military elements are responsible; Armenians believe the Turkish
government is reluctant to take the blame.In either interpretation,
the facts are stark: about 1.5 million Armenians perished in a war with
Turkey between 1915 and 1918. The Turks closed off its border in 1993,
and with it, a significant chunk of Armenia's economy disappeared. In
the decades since, Armenia has pressed for international recognition
of the genocide-and rightfully so-but that has only stoked the fire
with the Turks.But, while one would think that the genocide rift is
what led Turkey to close off its border, it's not. Instead, Turkey
is standing in solidarity with another neighbor over a contested
territory.Azerbaijan, another fromer Soviet republic, shut its borders
with Armenia after the two battled over an Armenian-populated enclave
in Azerbaijan, called Nagorno-Karabakh, in the 1990â~@²s. Today,
the territory remains a "semi-autonomous" area; meaning that the
Azeris want it back, the Armenians believe they control it, and the
Karabakhtis has declared independence (which no country has formally
recognized).Meanwhile, the relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan
is sliding downhill. Last week, Azerbaijan made a deal with Hungary
to extradite a convicted Azeri murderer. (The man, eight years ago,
nearly decapitated a sleeping Armenian serviceman with an axe at a
NATO-sponsored English class.) He was returned under the condition
that he would serve at least 25 more years in jail.Instead, as the
New York Times put it, he received "a new apartment, eight years
of back pay, a promotion to the rank of major and the status of a
national hero." Uproar in Armenia ensued. Armenia's President released
a statement warning, "The Armenians must not be underestimated. We
don't want a war, but if we have to, we will fight and win.Meanwhile,
Azerbaijan is enjoying the windfall from oil exports. Israel, in
particular, has strengthened relations with the Azeris, purchasing
30 percent of their oil from them, as well as selling them over $1.5
billion in military supplies. The US is also a buyer of Azeri oil. As
the New York Times points out, Azerbaijan invested more money in
its military than Armenia's entire state budget last year. Hardly
the sign of harmonious relations to come.So far, Armenia's walked
a diplomatic tightrope with skill. As my Lonely Planet travel book
explains, "Despite its limited resources, Armenia has become a master
at geopolitics.
What other country in the world can say it maintains good relations
with the US, Russia and Iran?Given the cards they're dealt, Armenia has
been a remarkable success story. If America hopes to engender greater
cooperation, it's got to sweeten the deal-through trade agreements,
offering economic reforms and encouraging private sector development
in Armenia. Armenia became independent in 1991. Two decades later,
it's still trying to find its footing in the region. It may not have
gold, oil, gas or jewels to give to the US. But, instead, it may have
something more useful: a strategic position in the most critical--and
potentially most dangerous--region in the world.