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Who Is `Heating' Autumn?
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments27532.html
Published: 11:36:53 - 28/09/2012
The authorities are heating up Vartan Oskanian's `case' and are set to
bring charges against him for the Civilitas case. They may even remand
Vartan Oskanian in custody for two months. Ahead of the presidential
elections this will only boost Vartan Oskanian's rating. So, after
Serzh Sargsyan, the ex-foreign minister will be the next most
motivated and substantial candidate for president, especially, taking
into account that the society likes `victims'.
The government seems to be doing a big favor to the chairman of the
Armenian National Congress Levon Ter-Petrosyan who is facing the
dilemma of running or not. Ter-Petrosyan understands that in case he
runs in the election, his results will be miserable, while generating
another February 2008 is actually impossible. On the other hand,
Ter-Petrosyan's status and his entourage holds him back because they
state Ter-Petrosyan is everyone's candidate there.
The optimal choice for Ter-Petrosyan would be not running regardless
of whether he wants to leave or stay in politics. Unlike his
entourage, Ter-Petrosyan has a better understanding of the situation.
Vartan Oskanian's `persecution' is a good rationale for Ter-Petrosyan
not to run. If the public is focused on Oskanian's case, moreover, if
he is arrested, he will become a unique symbol of the country
suffering due to the system.
So, hardly anyone will accuse Ter-Petrosyan of not running in order to
support the symbol which becomes the victim of political persecution.
Heating up Oskanian's case and bringing charges against him, the
authorities directly or indirectly do a favor to the Congress leader.
There is nothing else Ter-Petrosyan can do but to skip the election.
If the Congress' leader wants to run he needs to do something to be
accused for something worse and remanded in custody for a longer term
than Oskanian.
The PAP has no alternative either. Vartan Oskanian is a PAP member.
Prosperous Armenia should do nothing but nominate a candidate who will
be Vartan Oskanian since he is `persecuted'.
The motion strip Oskanian of immunity came after Adibekyan the
sociologist had presented the results of a poll indicating Gagik
Tsarukyan as the popular candidate.
Apparently, as a presidential candidate Tsarukyan worries the
government so it is trying to have Oskanian run instead.
Or, in order to defend his friend Oskanian, Kocharyan will have to
run. It is not ruled out that Serzh Sargsyan wants to lure Kocharyan
out of his `den' to close Kocharyan's chapter in the ruling system and
political life once and for all. Or in order to show that Kocharyan
has no courage to confront him openly. This could be an eloquent
message to the system.
Anyway, interestingly the autumn which the opposition promised is
heated up by the government. Perhaps, after making those statements,
the opposition has understood that a heated autumn is what Serzh
Sargsyan needs, so it has decided not to follow up its own statements.
The government is following them instead.
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments27532.html
Published: 11:36:53 - 28/09/2012
The authorities are heating up Vartan Oskanian's `case' and are set to
bring charges against him for the Civilitas case. They may even remand
Vartan Oskanian in custody for two months. Ahead of the presidential
elections this will only boost Vartan Oskanian's rating. So, after
Serzh Sargsyan, the ex-foreign minister will be the next most
motivated and substantial candidate for president, especially, taking
into account that the society likes `victims'.
The government seems to be doing a big favor to the chairman of the
Armenian National Congress Levon Ter-Petrosyan who is facing the
dilemma of running or not. Ter-Petrosyan understands that in case he
runs in the election, his results will be miserable, while generating
another February 2008 is actually impossible. On the other hand,
Ter-Petrosyan's status and his entourage holds him back because they
state Ter-Petrosyan is everyone's candidate there.
The optimal choice for Ter-Petrosyan would be not running regardless
of whether he wants to leave or stay in politics. Unlike his
entourage, Ter-Petrosyan has a better understanding of the situation.
Vartan Oskanian's `persecution' is a good rationale for Ter-Petrosyan
not to run. If the public is focused on Oskanian's case, moreover, if
he is arrested, he will become a unique symbol of the country
suffering due to the system.
So, hardly anyone will accuse Ter-Petrosyan of not running in order to
support the symbol which becomes the victim of political persecution.
Heating up Oskanian's case and bringing charges against him, the
authorities directly or indirectly do a favor to the Congress leader.
There is nothing else Ter-Petrosyan can do but to skip the election.
If the Congress' leader wants to run he needs to do something to be
accused for something worse and remanded in custody for a longer term
than Oskanian.
The PAP has no alternative either. Vartan Oskanian is a PAP member.
Prosperous Armenia should do nothing but nominate a candidate who will
be Vartan Oskanian since he is `persecuted'.
The motion strip Oskanian of immunity came after Adibekyan the
sociologist had presented the results of a poll indicating Gagik
Tsarukyan as the popular candidate.
Apparently, as a presidential candidate Tsarukyan worries the
government so it is trying to have Oskanian run instead.
Or, in order to defend his friend Oskanian, Kocharyan will have to
run. It is not ruled out that Serzh Sargsyan wants to lure Kocharyan
out of his `den' to close Kocharyan's chapter in the ruling system and
political life once and for all. Or in order to show that Kocharyan
has no courage to confront him openly. This could be an eloquent
message to the system.
Anyway, interestingly the autumn which the opposition promised is
heated up by the government. Perhaps, after making those statements,
the opposition has understood that a heated autumn is what Serzh
Sargsyan needs, so it has decided not to follow up its own statements.
The government is following them instead.