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In case of war with Iran there will be serious repercussions for South Caucasus
Wed 26 September 2012 10:20 GMT | 11:20 Local Time
Alexandros Petersen
News.Az interviews Alexandros Petersen, author of The World Island:
Eurasian Geopolitics and the Fate of the West. His latest research is
available at www.chinaincentralasia.com.
Member of the US Congress Dana Rohrabacher recently sent a letter to
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urging the United States to back
freedom for Azeris from Iran. How would you comment on that?
This has much more to do with U.S.-Iran wrangling and internal
Washington politics - especially around the upcoming election - than
it has to do with real support for ethnic Azeris in Iran.
Unfortunately, there is little real understanding of the history of
Azeris - in Azerbaijan or Iran - in Washington. Someone picked up the
tidbit that there are a lot of Azeris in Iran and assumed that because
Azerbaijan is a close partner of the United States, the Azeris outside
of the country could be counted on to support U.S. actions in the
event of conflict or serious confrontation. At the moment, however,
this notion is even less serious than that - it is being used as a
political cudgle against the White House.
Do you believe that this proposition is strictly an initiative by
Rohrabacher himself or does it reflect the plans of a wider group of
politicians?
There is a substantial group of opinion shapers, policymakers and
media commentators that have latched on to this idea - it is not just
Rohrabacher. That said, few espousing support for Azeris in Iran have
the faintest idea about the region's history or Azerbaijani-Iranian
relations. That is not to say that such support is a bad idea, but at
the moment its popularity in Washington has little to do with
substance.
How tensions around Iran affect the situation in the South Caucasus?
May this tensions or even attacks against Iran influence on a
conflicts settlement in the South Caucasus?
Should there be any kind of a shooting war with Iran, there would
likely be serious repercussions for the South Caucasus. Iranian
leadership has threatened to target the BTC pipeline and energy
infrastructure in the Caspian. It may also conduct asymmetrical
attacks on soft targets in the region as a form of reprisal. Should in
fact the ethnic Azeri population of Iran become involved, then the
game could change completely. It would weaken Tehran, but it might
also drag the South Caucasus into a major conflagration.
Do you predict any changes in American diplomacy in our region after
upcoming presidential elections?
The current administration will likely not change its policies
substantially should it win another term. A Republican administration
may take a more confrontational line with Russia, especially regarding
Georgia's occupied territories. However, it is unlikely that either
will turn the needed focus to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Should
unexpected results come out of Georgian presidential elections next
year or if there is a conflict with Iran, then suddenly the U.S.
approach to the region might change dramatically. But this has more to
do with events on the ground than the U.S. election.
News.Az
Wed 26 September 2012 10:20 GMT | 11:20 Local Time
Alexandros Petersen
News.Az interviews Alexandros Petersen, author of The World Island:
Eurasian Geopolitics and the Fate of the West. His latest research is
available at www.chinaincentralasia.com.
Member of the US Congress Dana Rohrabacher recently sent a letter to
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urging the United States to back
freedom for Azeris from Iran. How would you comment on that?
This has much more to do with U.S.-Iran wrangling and internal
Washington politics - especially around the upcoming election - than
it has to do with real support for ethnic Azeris in Iran.
Unfortunately, there is little real understanding of the history of
Azeris - in Azerbaijan or Iran - in Washington. Someone picked up the
tidbit that there are a lot of Azeris in Iran and assumed that because
Azerbaijan is a close partner of the United States, the Azeris outside
of the country could be counted on to support U.S. actions in the
event of conflict or serious confrontation. At the moment, however,
this notion is even less serious than that - it is being used as a
political cudgle against the White House.
Do you believe that this proposition is strictly an initiative by
Rohrabacher himself or does it reflect the plans of a wider group of
politicians?
There is a substantial group of opinion shapers, policymakers and
media commentators that have latched on to this idea - it is not just
Rohrabacher. That said, few espousing support for Azeris in Iran have
the faintest idea about the region's history or Azerbaijani-Iranian
relations. That is not to say that such support is a bad idea, but at
the moment its popularity in Washington has little to do with
substance.
How tensions around Iran affect the situation in the South Caucasus?
May this tensions or even attacks against Iran influence on a
conflicts settlement in the South Caucasus?
Should there be any kind of a shooting war with Iran, there would
likely be serious repercussions for the South Caucasus. Iranian
leadership has threatened to target the BTC pipeline and energy
infrastructure in the Caspian. It may also conduct asymmetrical
attacks on soft targets in the region as a form of reprisal. Should in
fact the ethnic Azeri population of Iran become involved, then the
game could change completely. It would weaken Tehran, but it might
also drag the South Caucasus into a major conflagration.
Do you predict any changes in American diplomacy in our region after
upcoming presidential elections?
The current administration will likely not change its policies
substantially should it win another term. A Republican administration
may take a more confrontational line with Russia, especially regarding
Georgia's occupied territories. However, it is unlikely that either
will turn the needed focus to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Should
unexpected results come out of Georgian presidential elections next
year or if there is a conflict with Iran, then suddenly the U.S.
approach to the region might change dramatically. But this has more to
do with events on the ground than the U.S. election.
News.Az