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How Azerbaijan Will "lose Territory" And Save Face

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  • How Azerbaijan Will "lose Territory" And Save Face

    HOW AZERBAIJAN WILL "LOSE TERRITORY" AND SAVE FACE
    Naira Hayrumyan

    http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/politics/view/27906
    Politics - Wednesday, 31 October 2012, 13:15

    After the meeting of the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan
    in Paris on October 27, the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group stated
    that they proposed "new ideas" to the sides on the Karabakh issue
    settlement. It is noteworthy that even the most "notorious" experts
    don't dare to guess what ideas the co-chairs mean.

    Sure, it is easier to say that if there is no leakage, there is no
    idea. And the co-chairs, as if, traditionally, repress each other in
    order not to change the status quo. However, the important question
    is there - maybe they should try to reach a consensus on the change
    of the status quo?

    If such a consensus is reached then measures are necessary to stimulate
    the change of the status quo, and measures, which would allow to
    keep the situation under control and don't allow its becoming a
    large-scale war.

    If we follow the signals that are frequently voiced more and more
    openly, you can even draw a diagram of the output from the status quo.

    The Karabakh recognition by one or several countries, under the silent
    approval of the neighbors, may really be the necessary stimulus. (By
    the way, neither official Moscow, nor the U.S. or France made any
    statement relating to the recognition of NKR by the Australian state).

    Azerbaijan's aggression will immediately follow the recognition
    which will leave the negotiations and will announce war. Armenia, in
    response, as it was already stated, will strike the oil pipes. This
    will cause the "rage" of the Western community and Russia, they
    will intervene, and international peacekeepers will be deployed in
    the region, which will be located on previously worked out lines,
    which will be the final borders of NKR.

    In this situation, pre-agreed decisions are as much important as the
    "operative actions" of the parties at the moment when everything
    is done. Since it is unknown what Russia, moreover, Turkey will do,
    which always manages to strap its share from the burning cake. In war,
    operative decisions are sometimes the decisive ones.

    It is not ruled out that the status quo won't change and the "new
    ideas" of the co-chairs are just the proposal to sign a non-aggression
    pact. But there are far too many signs that the status quo will
    change: Russia's insistence to open the Abkhazian railway, softer
    positions of Georgia relating to Russia and the hints on the NKR
    recognition by Uruguay, the statement by the Armenian side to strike
    the oil infrastructures of Azerbaijan and Aliyev's quarrel with the
    British Petroleum.

    They clearly want to open communications in the region and, if they
    agree on the topic, the status quo will change. Rather, the status
    quo will be recognized internationally. And Azerbaijan, like Georgia
    in 2008, will have no choice but to war in order to "lose territory"
    and save its face.


    From: Baghdasarian
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