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  • Syrian-Armenian Exit Strategy

    Syrian-Armenian Exit Strategy

    Ted Tourian LLM, Sacramento, 25 November 2012

    Armenians in Syria need an exit strategy. The Armenians need to leave
    Syria before the situation further deteriorates, which could result in
    the largest genocidal policy towards Armenians since the 1980's, where
    Azerbaijani authorities carried out pogroms against the Armenian
    populations in Sumgait and Baku.[1] The implementation of an exit
    strategy does not end by helping Armenians flee Syria, but also on the
    ability to sustain Armenian refugees afterwards. Consideration must be
    given to the following criteria: convincing Armenians in Syria to flee
    Syria; where Armenians fleeing Syria can get refugee status; where
    Armenians fleeing Syria can get employment in order to sustain
    themselves; and where Armenians fleeing Syria can go to protect their
    own unique culture.



    An Armenian Church After Bombing

    I Necessity for an Exit Strategy for Syrian-Armenians

    Currently, there are at least 60,000 ethnic Armenians living in
    Syria.[2] For the most part, Armenians have stayed neutral to the
    sectarian violence engulfing Syria.[3] The ability of the Armenians to
    defend themselves in Syria is not feasible. Currently, the only real
    fighting force defending Armenians are Armenians themselves;
    merchants, who have been given munitions by a retreating Syrian
    Army.[4]

    Contrasting the civilian Armenian population defending themselves is
    the "Free Syrian Army" (FSA). The FSA is largely composed of foreign
    fighters, coming from places like Afghanistan, Chechnya, Pakistan, and
    Saudi Arabia.[5] These fighters are trained in Turkey.[6] These
    countries have continually engaged in some form of anti-Armenianism,
    and it would be naïve to think that if given the chance, soldiers from
    these countries would abstain from a policy of exterminating
    Armenians.[7]

    In recent weeks, the FSA has directed its ire towards Armenians. For
    instance, the FSA targeted and destroyed St. Gevorg church in Aleppo's
    Armenian-populated district of Nor Kyugh.[8] Armenians are targeted by
    the FSA for their historical allegiance to the Assad regime:[9]

    Nine Christian men, including seven ethnic Armenians, were ordered off
    the bus while the gunmen checked IDs, according to Mark, who was
    mistaken as the driver's assistant and spared interrogation.

    "Get off. You're with Bashar too," they told a Kurdish man who tried
    to intervene, referring to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad.
    (Emphasis added.)

    The former Armenian ambassador to Lebanon, Arman Navasardyan, has
    already warned that if Bashar al-Assad's regime falls, Armenians in
    Syria face a `St. Bartholomew's Day Massacre' if they are not
    evacuated.[10] These recent events bring Navasardyan's prediction much
    closer to fruition.

    II Implementation of an Exit Strategy

    The implementation of an exit strategy is complicated. The following
    section discusses the necessary steps that must be considered in order
    to implement a successful exit strategy for Armenians in Syria:[11] a)
    convincing Armenians in and out of Syria that leaving Syria is
    necessary; b) procedural considerations concerning potential new
    destinations for Armenian refugees; c) sustaining Armenian refugees
    outside Syria; and d) protecting the unique culture of Syrian
    Armenians. Ultimately, executing a successful exit strategy is more
    art than science.

    Convincing Armenians In and Out of Syria that Leaving Syria is Necessary:
    A successful exit strategy is as much dependent on the will of those
    fleeing. It is absolutely necessary to get Armenians in Syria to
    recognize the importance of leaving Syria, even if it means leaving
    behind homes, businesses, or a life that cannot be replicated anywhere
    else. Convincing any potential refugee to flee requires the upmost
    sensitivity especially when that potential refugee may be blinded by
    the aforementioned attachments.

    This is the current dilemma facing Armenians in Syria today: would we
    rather die in Syria, or move somewhere else?[12] Convincing a person
    to leave a home, a business that their grandparents started after the
    genocide is not easy,[13] but necessary in order to avoid a worse fate
    that waits for any minority if Bashar al-Assad's government is
    toppled.

    Equally difficult is convincing outside Armenian institutions that the
    time has come for Armenians in Syria to leave. For instance, would the
    Republic of Armenia welcome mass migration of one of the strongest
    Armenian Diaspora's?[14] Mass migration of the Armenian Syrian
    Diaspora weakens the Republic of Armenia's potential relations with
    Syria both during and at the conclusion of the war.[15] Are
    traditional organizations like the Armenian Apostolic Church, the
    Armenian General Benevolent Union (AGBU) or the Armenian Revolutionary
    Federation (ARF) in favor of evacuating Armenians in Syria when such
    organizations have substantial properties in Syria? Who better to be
    caretakers of its properties than Armenians armed with a slingshot,
    refusing to leave Syria, while an FSA-like Goliath trained by
    professional Turkish forces bears down?[16]

    Decisions to let go of the material are difficult. Individuals leaving
    everything behind, and the institutions tasked with serving the
    Armenian nation, must ask what Ruskin asks "[n]ow, as he was sinking,
    had he [sunk] the gold? Or had the gold [sunk] him?"

    Procedural Considerations Concerning Potential New Destinations for
    Armenian Refugees:
    Discussion has already been made of where potential Armenian refugees
    should move: Akhalkalaki;[17] Armenia;[18] Cyprus;[19] Lebanon;[20]
    the Republic of Nagarno-Karbagh;[21] and the west.[22] Each
    destination offers its own positives and negatives.

    In order for a successful exit strategy to take place, procedural
    considerations need to be adhered to. This includes securing visa and
    passport requirements. Recently, the Republic of Armenia has eased
    visa and passport requirements for Armenians fleeing sectarian
    violence in Syria, and neighboring countries.[23] However, entry
    requirements with respect to other countries have not been simplified.
    For instance, an Armenian refugee leaving for Cyprus does not need a
    passport provided they have the necessary documents issued to
    stateless persons and recognized refugees.[24] How does a
    Syrian-Armenian refugee become recognized as a refugee in Cyprus?
    These procedural obstacles can be a nightmare, especially for
    Syrian-Armenians facing sectarian violence, or Armenian Diaspora
    organizations ill-equipped to deal with legalese, and are looking to
    help evacuate Syrian-Armenians.

    Fortunately, potential Armenian refugees and Armenian Diaspora
    organizations trying to mobilize can rely on the Armenian Bar
    Association (ABA). The ABA recently wrote a letter to United Nations
    Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon, advocating the plight of Armenians in
    Syria.[25] In describing itself as `the largest organized group of
    Armenian Diasporan attorneys, judges and law students in the world,'
    and showing continued concern for the plight of Armenians in
    Syria,[26] Armenian organizations should not hesitate to contact the
    ABA and request pro bono assistance with respect to any potential
    legal barriers that exist in evacuating Armenians facing sectarian
    strife.[27]

    Sustaining Armenian Refugees Outside Syria:
    The next question is sustaining Armenian refugees outside Syria. The
    Armenian government has already taken several positive steps forward.
    For instance, the Armenian government has recently exempted taxation
    of Armenians fleeing Syria,[28] and offered to provide Armenians
    fleeing Syria with apartments and jobs.[29] This is in stark contrast
    to help Armenia was initially providing, where Armenians fleeing Syria
    `coincidentally' saw a 20 percent increase in housing prices when
    seeking refuge in Armenia.[30]

    However, labor mobility will become the biggest difficulty. For
    instance, some reports state that there are 10,000 Armenian jewelers
    potentially leaving Syria.[31] Armenia, already a country known for
    jewelers, recently saw a 60 percent drop of sales in diamond
    polishing.[32] Realistically speaking, Armenia cannot afford more
    jewelers flooding its already declining market.

    If Armenians fleeing Syria repatriate to Akhalkalaki, Armenia, or the
    Republic of Nagarno-Karabagh, questions needing to be addressed are
    what skill sets do these refugees possess that can make them useful
    members of their new society? Can their skills be transferred to their
    potential new homes? Are there options to train refugee Armenians with
    a new skill-set to make them valuable to their potential new homes?

    Most Armenian Diaspora organizations have allocated resources on the
    presumption that Armenians in Syria must remain in Syria. A quick
    search of aid efforts reveals that all help received by
    Syrian-Armenians is designed to ensure that the Armenian population in
    Syria remains in Syria: the Armenian Relief Society (ARS) has focused
    its charitable donations to cover the tuitions of students in order to
    alleviate the financial burden to be faced by parents and, at the same
    time, to fund schools;[33] AGBU has provided relief with food,
    medicine, shelter, water and energy to thousands of Armenian families
    in various cities, with local youth from our Chapters mobilizing as
    volunteers;[34] the Syrian Armenian Relief Fund's assistance will be
    used for food, medicine, temporary shelter, emergency medical and
    other critical humanitarian expenses by the united committees
    established by the Syrian-Armenian communities in accordance with
    local needs.[35]

    All aid is important concerning the plight of Syrian-Armenians. It
    cannot be stressed enough that this article is not intended to slight
    in any way, any group helping Syrian-Armenians. What this article
    hopefully tries to do is state that allocating resources to ensure
    Armenians stay in Syria is not efficient.[36] As discussed above, if
    Bashar al-Assad's regime falls, there is a very strong possibility
    ethnic Armenians will be subject to the worst pogroms since Sumgait.
    The result will be that aid initially assigned for the purposes of
    ensuring the Armenian population remains in Syria will have gone to
    waste. Only the Armenian government will have tried to hedge its bets
    by trying to accommodate Syrian-Armenian refugees.

    Protection of the Unique Culture of Syrian Armenians:
    Syrian-Armenian culture is steeped in history and tradition. Kesab has
    been an Armenian center, shielding Armenians from Ottoman Turk
    persecutions. Aleppo has been a historic Armenian Diaspora city, with
    many middle class Armenians.[37] The Syrian-Armenian community `has
    been a crucible that has forged many great leaders for the
    diaspora.'[38] Any potential recommended migrations must take into
    account the uniqueness of the Armenians living in Syria. The following
    section provides examples of locations and considerations that need to
    be taken into account

    Akhalkalaki and the Republic of Nagarno-Karabagh are suitable for
    Armenians in Syria who come from villages like Yacoubiyah or Kesab.
    Armenians from larger cities like Damascus or Aleppo could be absorbed
    in Yerevan. However, relying only on Yerevan would be detrimental.
    With respect to Syrian Armenians en masse fleeing to Armenia, ARF
    Bureau representative Hrant Markarian said it best that Armenia may
    not be able to fully absorb all Syrian Armenian migrants: `Let's be
    fair and recognize that unfortunately our country is not the sort of
    country that can handle a large number of refugees.'[39]

    Relocation is also possible to other near-east countries such as
    Cyprus. Cyprus already has some infrastructure ready to help absorb
    fleeing Armenians, such as the currently unused Melkonian Educational
    Institute. However, full absorption of Armenian refugees to Cyprus may
    not be feasible due to the relatively higher value of the Euro as
    compared to the Syrian pound, which might further erode the living
    standards of Syrian-Armenian refugees. Furthermore, migration of
    Syrian-Armenians to western countries comes with the risk of `white
    genocide.'[40]


    [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumgait_pogrom

    [2] http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2012/08/19/233028.html

    [3] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9539244/Syria-Christians-take-up-arms-for-first-time.html

    [4] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPPtwc6CdLw

    [5] http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/09/25/who-are-the-syrian-rebels/

    [6] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19124810

    [7] For instance, Afghanistani Mujahadeen and Chechen fighters were
    enlisted to fight ethnic Armenians in the Republic of Nagarno
    Karabagh, and its quest for self-determination
    (http://www.azad-hye.net/article/article_view.asp?re=985ghs92; Yossef
    Bodansky (2008). Chechen Jihad: Al Qaeda's Training Ground and the
    Next Wave of Terror (reprint ed.). HarperCollins. p. 36. ISBN
    0-06-142977-5. Retrieved 14 August 2011.); Pakistan is the only
    country in the world that does not recognize Armenia's independence in
    protest over the Republic of Nagarno Karabagh's victory of
    self-determination (http://www.today.az/news/politics/30102.html);
    Saudi Arabia and Armenia do not have diplomatic relations
    (http://www.mfa.am/en/country-by-country/sa/); It is historical fact
    that the Ottoman Empire (precursor to the Republic of Turkey)
    committed genocide against Armenians
    (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_Genocide).

    [8] http://www.aina.org/news/20121103174722.htm

    [9] http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Nov-02/193661-extortio...

    (The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb)

    [10] http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/126464/

    [11] It should be kept in mind that this analysis is a blue-print, and
    subject to change should the situation demand it.

    [12] http://armenpress.am/eng/news/697326/the-majority-of-the-syrian-armenians-do-not-want-to-leave-syria.html

    [13] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/the-plight-of-syrias-christians-we-left-homs-because-they-were-trying-to-kill-us-8274710.html

    [14] http://hetq.am/eng/news/20196/president-sargsyan-we-are-not-urging-our-brothers-to-leave-syria.html

    [15] http://www.tert.am/en/news/2012/07/21/siria-haj/

    [16] David does not always beat Goliath.

    [17] http://www.eurasianet.org/node/65669

    [18] http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArchiveDetails.aspx?ID=429908

    [19] http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Jun-27/178400-cyprus-says-ready-to-evacuate-refugees-from-syria.ashx
    (Cyprus says it's ready to evacuate refugees from Syria; not just
    Armenians.)

    [20] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18929940 (Syrians en
    masse leaving for Lebanon; not just Armenians.)

    [21] http://www.eurasianet.org/node/65757

    [22] For instance, Canada pushing Syrians who have family in Canada to
    immigrate to Canada
    (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/a-team-canada-plan-for-syria/article4701907/);
    Switzerland is accepting Syrian refugees
    (http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/politics/Swiss_consider_accepting_Syrian_refugees.html?cid= 32282134);
    pressure being put on the European Union to accept more Syrian
    refugees (http://www.neurope.eu/article/humanitarian-organizations-call-eu-protect-syrian-refugees);
    Canada pushing Syrians who have family in Canada to immigrate to
    Canada (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/a-team-canada-plan-for-syria/article4701907/);

    [23] http://www.mirrorspectator.com/2012/08/15/visa-passport-requirements-eased-for-syrian-armenians/

    [24] http://www.mfa.gov.cy/mfa/mfa2006.nsf/0/BCD9E71A8FBBA8DCC225720B001D9AFE?OpenDocument

    [25] http://hetq.am/eng/news/18687/armenian-bar-association-urges-un-secretary-general-to-protect-syrian-armenians.html

    [26] http://www.armenianbar.com/news/show/233/1

    [27] Refusing to provide pro bono assistance in such circumstances
    would be tantamount to making the ABA's letter to the UN Secretary
    General meaningless.

    [28] http://www.eng.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/22069/

    [29] http://armenpress.am/eng/news/698048/issues-on-providing-syrian-armenian-with-apartments-and-jobs-have-been-discussed.html

    [30] http://www.rferl.org/content/syria-armenia-housing-market/24685725.html

    [31] http://news.am/eng/news/126555.html

    [32] http://www.israelidiamond.co.il/english/News.aspx?boneId`8&objid=12020

    [33] http://ars1910.org/?p=2155

    [34] http://agbu.org/syriarelief/index.html

    [35] http://www.syrianarmenianrelieffund.org/about.php

    [36] It should be noted that Armenian charitable organizations making
    the decision to allocate resources on the presumption that Armenians
    in Syria remain in Syria was probably made before the FSA began
    directing operations against Armenians.

    [37] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYoCbAmOBzw

    [38] http://www.armenianweekly.com/2012/10/11/chicago-holds-rally-in-support-of-syrian-armenians/

    [39] http://www.armenianweekly.com/2012/07/27/the-syrian-armenian-dilemma-community-preservation-or-out-migration/

    [40] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Genocide#cite_note-0

    http://www.keghart.com/Tourian-SyrianArmenians

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