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ARMENIA: MAJOR PLAYERS IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
Vestnik Kavkaza
Dec 4 2012
Russia
Susanna Petrosyan in Yerevan. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
On the eve of the presidential elections, the political field
of Armenia is gradually getting rid of insignificant players. The
process of crystallization is continuing, while major players appear
on the political scene more visibly. However, there are not many
major political groups or figures in Armenia.
Current President Serzh Sargsyan has the greatest resources,
controlling 90-95% of the media, parliament, the government, the
judicial system and all power structures. He is supported by external
players, particularly by Washington and Brussels. In addition,
Sargsyan controls the central electoral commission, in particular
regional electoral commissions.
In certain circumstances, he might receive the support of
Nagorno-Karabakh. Thet have already intervened in central politics at
the request of Yerevan and assisted the Armenian government. Despite
almost total control over the myriad of leverages, the socio-economic
situation is extremely unfavorable to the current president.
During Sargsyan's term there have been no reforms. His presidential
term can be characterized by the Soviet term "stagnation", which
was often associated with Brezhnev's years. As is already known,
stagnation can always lead to certain movements in society. In this
regard, it is difficult not to agree with the ex-foreign minister,
a member of the Prosperous Armenia Party, Vardan Oskanyan: "Today,
Armenia's political field is divided into two poles. One pole consists
of the authorities, which, of course, wants to perpetuate itself,
which means maintaining the status quo. Another pole, which consists
of a large number of political parties, expresses its position to
conduct immediate systematic changes in the country. If there are
two poles in the political field, there is only one in society -
society wants to see dramatic changes."
In order to improve the president's popularity, the propaganda machine
he controls is trying to convince the public that Robert Kocharyan
is even more unwanted than Sargsyan. In the current situation, when
the leader of the PAP Gagik Tsarukyan will become the main rival of
the ruling party at the presidential elections, Kocharyan's case is
being used in direct relation to the PAP and Tsarukyan. In particular,
Tsarukyan is presented as a puppet of Robert Kocharyan. A great number
of newspapers, TV and radio channels are trying to persuade Armenians
that Tsarukyan is Kocharyan's puppet.
In order not to get lost in the flow of speculations and expert
opinions, one has to analyze the role Kocharyan has in the public
consciousness. In essence, Kocharyan has been rejected by Armenian
society due to his attitude towards his opponents and the carnage which
took place on March 1, 2008, which is blamed entirely on Kocharyan,
then the head of state. For that reason, any politician willing to
win over the electorate in Armenia has to stay away from Kocharyan.
Most probably, Tsarukyan understands this obvious truth. The desire
to distance himself from the former president is evident, not only
from the actions of the PAP and statements of its leaders claiming
that the PAP is independent from Korcharyan. Another former coalition
party, the ARF, demonstrates the same approach.
Kocharyan himself, of course, tries to influence the political
process, but it is unlikely that he will have the support of political
forces. His figure is present on the political field, but that does
not mean that it has any significant impact.
In one way or another, Tsarukyan remains the main opponent of Sargsyan,
while his party, the PAP, remains a resourceful party. The PAP, similar
to the ruling party, lacks an ideology. However, compared with the
authorities it has a great advantage, since it is propagating the
changes so desired in society. PAP representatives have repeatedly
expressed the need to create a favorable environment for the
development of small and medium-sized enterprises, which could
contribute to finding a solution to the dire socio-economic situation.
Deputies from this party - recently only a coalition party - were
highly critical of the budget for 2013. Most recently, the PAP
faction supported the initiative of a radical opposition party,
the Armenian National Congress (ANC), to amend the Electoral Code,
the Criminal Code and the law "On the State Register" before the
presidential election. In this regard, in the eyes of the public,
the PAP has a much more favorable image than the authorities.
In addition to considerable financial and human resources, with the
"Kentron" TV channel under its control and several websites, the PAP
also has a problem: a part of the society does not believe that the
PAP is a rival to the ruling Republican Party (RPA) and Serzh Sargsyan.
Today, there is an interesting situation on Armenia's political scene.
The PAP seems to have a larger electorate than the ANC. In the last
parliamentary elections it was given 450,000 votes, while only about
100,000 people voted for the ANC. However, the PAP can expect to win
only in alliance with the ANC, since state propaganda has made some
members of the Armenian society distrustful of the PAP and its leader.
In case the PAP becomes an ally of the ANC, people will start
perceiving it as more trustworthy party - only a few people in Armenia
would expect the ANC to cooperate with the authorities. Despite all
criticisms, nobody in the country has doubts regarding the opposition
nature of the ANC.
Such a political alliance might result in more votes than simply in
450,000 votes + 100,000 votes. The Armenian people trust associations
more than single candidates or parties. The presidential elections
of 1996, 2003 and 2008 serve as proof of that.
The ARF remains a significant political power. On the eve of elections,
the PAP, the ANC and the ARF are conducting frequent political
consultations. The head of the central office of the ANC, deputy Levon
Zurabyan, does not rule out that the ANC and the PAP may nominate a
single candidate. In turn, a representative of the ARF Supreme Body,
deputy Armen Rustamyan, stated that the party has still to take a
decision regarding its participation in the presidential elections.
Other remaining political forces are unlikely to have an impact on
the political processes in Armenia. Presidential candidates Raffi
Hovannisian from the Heritage party, Aram Karapetyan from New Times
and Paruyr Hayrikyan of National Self-determination do not have the
number of potential votes required to compete for power. The upcoming
presidential elections also differ from previous ones because this
time the authorities have failed to find a suitable pseudo-candidate.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/34466.html
From: A. Papazian
Vestnik Kavkaza
Dec 4 2012
Russia
Susanna Petrosyan in Yerevan. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
On the eve of the presidential elections, the political field
of Armenia is gradually getting rid of insignificant players. The
process of crystallization is continuing, while major players appear
on the political scene more visibly. However, there are not many
major political groups or figures in Armenia.
Current President Serzh Sargsyan has the greatest resources,
controlling 90-95% of the media, parliament, the government, the
judicial system and all power structures. He is supported by external
players, particularly by Washington and Brussels. In addition,
Sargsyan controls the central electoral commission, in particular
regional electoral commissions.
In certain circumstances, he might receive the support of
Nagorno-Karabakh. Thet have already intervened in central politics at
the request of Yerevan and assisted the Armenian government. Despite
almost total control over the myriad of leverages, the socio-economic
situation is extremely unfavorable to the current president.
During Sargsyan's term there have been no reforms. His presidential
term can be characterized by the Soviet term "stagnation", which
was often associated with Brezhnev's years. As is already known,
stagnation can always lead to certain movements in society. In this
regard, it is difficult not to agree with the ex-foreign minister,
a member of the Prosperous Armenia Party, Vardan Oskanyan: "Today,
Armenia's political field is divided into two poles. One pole consists
of the authorities, which, of course, wants to perpetuate itself,
which means maintaining the status quo. Another pole, which consists
of a large number of political parties, expresses its position to
conduct immediate systematic changes in the country. If there are
two poles in the political field, there is only one in society -
society wants to see dramatic changes."
In order to improve the president's popularity, the propaganda machine
he controls is trying to convince the public that Robert Kocharyan
is even more unwanted than Sargsyan. In the current situation, when
the leader of the PAP Gagik Tsarukyan will become the main rival of
the ruling party at the presidential elections, Kocharyan's case is
being used in direct relation to the PAP and Tsarukyan. In particular,
Tsarukyan is presented as a puppet of Robert Kocharyan. A great number
of newspapers, TV and radio channels are trying to persuade Armenians
that Tsarukyan is Kocharyan's puppet.
In order not to get lost in the flow of speculations and expert
opinions, one has to analyze the role Kocharyan has in the public
consciousness. In essence, Kocharyan has been rejected by Armenian
society due to his attitude towards his opponents and the carnage which
took place on March 1, 2008, which is blamed entirely on Kocharyan,
then the head of state. For that reason, any politician willing to
win over the electorate in Armenia has to stay away from Kocharyan.
Most probably, Tsarukyan understands this obvious truth. The desire
to distance himself from the former president is evident, not only
from the actions of the PAP and statements of its leaders claiming
that the PAP is independent from Korcharyan. Another former coalition
party, the ARF, demonstrates the same approach.
Kocharyan himself, of course, tries to influence the political
process, but it is unlikely that he will have the support of political
forces. His figure is present on the political field, but that does
not mean that it has any significant impact.
In one way or another, Tsarukyan remains the main opponent of Sargsyan,
while his party, the PAP, remains a resourceful party. The PAP, similar
to the ruling party, lacks an ideology. However, compared with the
authorities it has a great advantage, since it is propagating the
changes so desired in society. PAP representatives have repeatedly
expressed the need to create a favorable environment for the
development of small and medium-sized enterprises, which could
contribute to finding a solution to the dire socio-economic situation.
Deputies from this party - recently only a coalition party - were
highly critical of the budget for 2013. Most recently, the PAP
faction supported the initiative of a radical opposition party,
the Armenian National Congress (ANC), to amend the Electoral Code,
the Criminal Code and the law "On the State Register" before the
presidential election. In this regard, in the eyes of the public,
the PAP has a much more favorable image than the authorities.
In addition to considerable financial and human resources, with the
"Kentron" TV channel under its control and several websites, the PAP
also has a problem: a part of the society does not believe that the
PAP is a rival to the ruling Republican Party (RPA) and Serzh Sargsyan.
Today, there is an interesting situation on Armenia's political scene.
The PAP seems to have a larger electorate than the ANC. In the last
parliamentary elections it was given 450,000 votes, while only about
100,000 people voted for the ANC. However, the PAP can expect to win
only in alliance with the ANC, since state propaganda has made some
members of the Armenian society distrustful of the PAP and its leader.
In case the PAP becomes an ally of the ANC, people will start
perceiving it as more trustworthy party - only a few people in Armenia
would expect the ANC to cooperate with the authorities. Despite all
criticisms, nobody in the country has doubts regarding the opposition
nature of the ANC.
Such a political alliance might result in more votes than simply in
450,000 votes + 100,000 votes. The Armenian people trust associations
more than single candidates or parties. The presidential elections
of 1996, 2003 and 2008 serve as proof of that.
The ARF remains a significant political power. On the eve of elections,
the PAP, the ANC and the ARF are conducting frequent political
consultations. The head of the central office of the ANC, deputy Levon
Zurabyan, does not rule out that the ANC and the PAP may nominate a
single candidate. In turn, a representative of the ARF Supreme Body,
deputy Armen Rustamyan, stated that the party has still to take a
decision regarding its participation in the presidential elections.
Other remaining political forces are unlikely to have an impact on
the political processes in Armenia. Presidential candidates Raffi
Hovannisian from the Heritage party, Aram Karapetyan from New Times
and Paruyr Hayrikyan of National Self-determination do not have the
number of potential votes required to compete for power. The upcoming
presidential elections also differ from previous ones because this
time the authorities have failed to find a suitable pseudo-candidate.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/34466.html
From: A. Papazian