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Fitch rates Armenia's ACBA-Credit Agricole Enhanced Coverage

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  • Fitch rates Armenia's ACBA-Credit Agricole Enhanced Coverage

    Russia & CIS Business and Financial Newswire
    December 28, 2007 Friday 4:03 PM MSK



    Fitch rates Armenia's ACBA-Credit Agricole Enhanced Coverage


    Bank CJSC (ACBA) ratings of Long-term Issuer Default (IDR) 'BB' with
    Stable Outlook, Short-term IDR 'B', Individual 'D' and Support '3,'
    the rating agency said in a press release.

    ACBA's ratings reflect the moderate probability of support being
    forthcoming, if required, from ACBA's biggest shareholder, Credit
    Agricole S.A.
    Enhanced Coverage LinkingCredit Agricole S.A. -Search using:
    Company Profile
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    (CA, Long-term IDR 'AA'/Outlook Stable), the press release says. In
    Fitch's view, despite the 28% minority shareholding, CA would have a
    moderate propensity to support ACBA, if required, considering the
    brand association, the close involvement of CA in establishing and
    supervising ACBA and the still very small size of ACBA.

    That said, the minority ownership and the fact that the Armenian
    market does not appear to be of high strategic importance for CA,
    could reduce the probability of support, the press release says. In
    light of ACBA's considerable market share in agricultural lending
    sector, there is also a limited probability of support being
    forthcoming for the bank from the Armenian authorities (Armenia is
    rated Long-term foreign and local currency IDR 'BB-'(BB
    minus)/Outlook Positive) in case of need.

    The Individual rating reflects ACBA's small size by international
    standards, a high-risk operating environment, the bank's very rapid
    asset growth and a high proportion of foreign currency lending. At
    the same time, it takes into account the generally good quality of
    management, ACBA's significant domestic franchise, strong core
    performance, historically good asset quality, strong capitalization
    and adequate liquidity position, the press release says.

    Upside potential for the Long-term IDR is currently limited, and
    would require an increase in CA's stake in ACBA and/or strong
    representations by CA to Fitch concerning its readiness to support
    ACBA in case of need. An upgrade of Armenia's Country Ceiling from
    its current level of 'BB' would also be a necessary condition for any
    upgrade of ACBA's Long-term IDR. Any downward revision of Fitch's
    assessment of CA's propensity to support ACBA or a downgrade of
    Armenia's Country Ceiling (not anticipated at present in light of the
    Positive Outlook on the sovereign ratings) could result in a
    downgrade of ACBA's Long-term IDR.

    Upside for ACBA's Individual rating is currently limited given its
    small size and the high-risk operating environment. However, a
    successful further expansion of franchise, combined with maintenance
    of the bank's asset quality and adequate capitalization, would be
    positive for the bank's stand-alone credit profile. Significant loan
    losses would be the major potential source of downward pressure on
    the rating, although the equity cushion to absorb these is currently
    substantial.

    ACBA is Armenia's third-largest bank by assets and loans, with market
    shares of 10% and 12%, respectively, as of the end of the third
    quarter 2007, and a leading position in agricultural lending with 70%
    market share. ACBA is engaged in micro and small financing of the
    agricultural sector and SMEs, and retail lending. It operates through
    21 outlets in Armenia, which it plans to expand to 47 by end-2009. CA
    holds the biggest (28%) stake in the bank, while the remainder is
    owned by 10 Regional Unions of Agricultural Cooperation, representing
    more than 45,000 farmers.
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