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Turkey Is At The Crossroads

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  • Turkey Is At The Crossroads

    TURKEY IS AT THE CROSSROADS
    By Harry Sterling, Freelance

    The Gazette (Montreal)
    February 5, 2007 Monday
    Final Edition

    The country can continue its march to political and human rights
    reform, or return to the dark days of the past

    Hrant Dink would have been impressed by the gigantic turnout in
    Istanbul. More than 100,000 people jammed the streets, the main
    thoroughfare overflowing, stretching for blocks.

    Regrettably, the massive outpouring of support came on the day of
    his own funeral, the ethnic Armenian newspaper editor murdered by
    a young ultra-nationalist Turk angered by Dink's writing about the
    controversial events of 1915 in which much of Turkey's Armenian
    community died at the hands of the Ottoman Turks.

    Although Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan was quick to denounce
    the murder, as did many Turks, Dink's assassination once again drew
    attention to the divisions within Turkish society. Those cleavages
    extend far beyond the Armenian issue, raising serious questions
    of where Turkey is heading, including it prospects for joining the
    European Union.

    During the past year, there's been an escalation of bombings by radical
    groups, particularly Islamists and Kurds. A number of Turkish tourist
    resorts have been targeted, as have public buildings in Istanbul. A
    judge was assassinated in the capital Ankara by an Islamic militant.

    That such attacks have taken place in a country where the security
    authorities and military have a reputation for not tolerating
    anti-government activities or demonstrations - even legitimate dissent
    - is worrisome for many.

    This is particularly troublesome for those concerned by a dramatic
    decrease in popular support for Turkey's longstanding application
    to join the European Union. Until recently, there was a comfortable
    majority in favour of joining the EU. Now only one in three regard
    joining as important, many saying the Europeans demean Turkey by
    constantly demanding more respect for the rule of law and fundamental
    human rights. Nationalists and others, including Islamists, say Turkey
    should concentrate instead on developing closer relations with its
    neighbours and other Muslim countries.

    The shift away from the EU has important implications for those who
    want Turkish authorities to carry out political and human rights
    reforms.

    Numerous Turkish writers, journalists and others were charged with
    violating laws prohibiting criticism of the country's institutions
    or which denigrated "Turkishness."

    It was only after an international outcry that Turkey's famous
    novelist, Orhan Pamuk - winner of last year's Nobel Prize for
    Literature - had his charges dropped. He had been accused of defaming
    Turkey in an interview by mentioning the Armenian massacre controversy
    and plight of the Kurdish population. Another Turkish author, Elif
    Shafak, also initially faced prosecution for having a character in
    her novel make critical comments about Turkey.

    It's not just human rights activists and Armenians who would be
    concerned if the government lessens its commitment to reforms. A
    Kurdish observer pointed out that the government's desire to join
    the EU was a pivotal factor in its willingness to finally allow the
    use of the Kurdish language on the radio and in certain schools. A
    turning away from the EU could remove the gains of recent years

    As it is, the situation of Kurds in eastern Turkey remains tense,
    partially due to widespread resentment of the security forces that
    harass and intimidate Kurds considered supportive of the PKK or
    independence.

    Despite the imprisonment of the PKK's leader, Abdullah Ocalan, the
    PKK has been re-grouping from sanctuaries in northern Iraq where
    Iraqi Kurds now operate a semi-autonomous administration because of
    the overthrow of the Saddam Hussein regime.

    However, the presence of the PKK in northern Iraq has introduced a
    further explosive element: Turkey threatens to invade northern Iraq
    to attack the PKK.

    To further complicate an already volatile situation, Turkey is
    opposed to Iraq's Kurdish leadership trying to control the region
    across its border, including oil-rich Kirkuk, laying the groundwork
    for eventually declaring an independent Kurdish state.

    Ankara sees this as highly dangerous for its national interests because
    it might encouraging its own Kurdish population to support the PKK
    in its struggle for an independent Kurdish state in eastern Turkey.

    Turkish authorities have warned Washington that if it doesn't find a
    way to control the separatist tendencies in Iraq's Kurdistan region,
    Turkey could cross the border to take on the PKK and prevent the area
    becoming independent.

    The Americans argue that given the current difficulties they confront
    in controlling sectarian violence in the rest of Iraq, they simply
    do not have the resources to deploy U.S. forces in northern Iraq.

    Turkish authorities nevertheless want action to contain such Kurdish
    separatist threats. Some fear that if the Americans can't act, Turkey
    might do so.

    But any such intervention would also have unpredictable consequences
    not just for Turkey and the Kurds but also for Turkey ever joining
    the European Union.

    Harry Sterling, a former diplomat, is an Ottawa-based commentator. He
    served in Turkey.
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