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`Bogey' Of Hot War
Siranuysh Papyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/interview26568.html
Published: 15:22:55 - 15/06/2012
Interview with Ashot Manucharyan, member of Karabakh committee
Mr Manucharyan, rumors on possible resumption of hostilities have
become quite often. It is mostly stated that there will be no
large-scale war. Do you think the war resumption is possible?
The military actions and signs of war have increased in the last
months. By the way, the information on the possible resumption of
hostilities was published by not only the Armenian and Azerbaijani
press, but also Russian, American and European. We also need to answer
what the objective was and who benefited. It may seem from outside
that the escalation really recalls war. But there have already been
two sober opinions: ex-minister of defense of Armenia Vagharshak
Harutyunyan said there are no signs of war because the balance of
forces does not allow it. I can add that the possibility of war has
sharply decreased because the level of arming of the parties has
increased (it is different when you get armed with rifles or with
rockets) and if reached a peak, and the parties acquired nuclear
weapons, then the probability of war would arrive to zero, because the
nuclear weapon states don't war with each other.
The second sober opinion was issued by Wafa Guluzade, Azeri political
scientist, who recalled that the Russian tanks are located 400 km from
Baku, hence pointing out to the nail of the geopolitical situation in
the region.
So the problem lies in Russia?
The geopolitical fight has become tenser in the region. Small
countries in the region also have something to share with each other,
they threaten each other, but the geopolitical leverage has long been
taken away from us. We cannot decide any question of peace or war, and
the dictates of superpowers says that the war should not happen.
Rumors also go about a new stage of bargaining.
Yet, there are many victims in the result of Azerbaijani diversions.
Superpowers don't take interest in minor issues. Several hundred
thousand of lives in Iraq, Afganistan, Syria and Armenia - all this is
trifles when geopolitical issues are solved. This is the culture of
today's policy and we need to understand that we need to care for the
life of our soldiers and we need to be literate to prevent such
situations.
We know what war threat give to Armenia. We didn't know for long its
consequences in Azerbaijan. But the recent events have showed that a
colossal panic started in Azerbaijan, information appeared that
Armenian groups broke through the defense and were moving deep into
the country and the official agencies were forced to reject this
information.
Relations between Russia and the U.S. also sharpened, including in our
region. Russia tried to resolve the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict
within its ideas. In fact, for Russia the only solution of the
conflict is the Madrid principles and the introduction of troops, only
Russian. Any other move will cause a strong reaction in Moscow.
The fall in oil prices aggravates the economic situation in Russia,
where there are also serious internal problems. In these
circumstances, Russia only needs a victory like the one in Georgia in
2008. So think the U.S. trying to take up their own process that would
keep the parties in an entirely different mood.
There is a global war, and the superpowers use in it the `bogey' of
the hot war to compel the parties to the right decisions.
But wars are not only hot, but also alternative. This is disruption
and obligation to surrender without a fight out of fear. This method
is used now, Americans are using the Chinese method who don't engage
in war, but achieve their goals. And now, Armenia is coerced into
obedience.
Siranuysh Papyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/interview26568.html
Published: 15:22:55 - 15/06/2012
Interview with Ashot Manucharyan, member of Karabakh committee
Mr Manucharyan, rumors on possible resumption of hostilities have
become quite often. It is mostly stated that there will be no
large-scale war. Do you think the war resumption is possible?
The military actions and signs of war have increased in the last
months. By the way, the information on the possible resumption of
hostilities was published by not only the Armenian and Azerbaijani
press, but also Russian, American and European. We also need to answer
what the objective was and who benefited. It may seem from outside
that the escalation really recalls war. But there have already been
two sober opinions: ex-minister of defense of Armenia Vagharshak
Harutyunyan said there are no signs of war because the balance of
forces does not allow it. I can add that the possibility of war has
sharply decreased because the level of arming of the parties has
increased (it is different when you get armed with rifles or with
rockets) and if reached a peak, and the parties acquired nuclear
weapons, then the probability of war would arrive to zero, because the
nuclear weapon states don't war with each other.
The second sober opinion was issued by Wafa Guluzade, Azeri political
scientist, who recalled that the Russian tanks are located 400 km from
Baku, hence pointing out to the nail of the geopolitical situation in
the region.
So the problem lies in Russia?
The geopolitical fight has become tenser in the region. Small
countries in the region also have something to share with each other,
they threaten each other, but the geopolitical leverage has long been
taken away from us. We cannot decide any question of peace or war, and
the dictates of superpowers says that the war should not happen.
Rumors also go about a new stage of bargaining.
Yet, there are many victims in the result of Azerbaijani diversions.
Superpowers don't take interest in minor issues. Several hundred
thousand of lives in Iraq, Afganistan, Syria and Armenia - all this is
trifles when geopolitical issues are solved. This is the culture of
today's policy and we need to understand that we need to care for the
life of our soldiers and we need to be literate to prevent such
situations.
We know what war threat give to Armenia. We didn't know for long its
consequences in Azerbaijan. But the recent events have showed that a
colossal panic started in Azerbaijan, information appeared that
Armenian groups broke through the defense and were moving deep into
the country and the official agencies were forced to reject this
information.
Relations between Russia and the U.S. also sharpened, including in our
region. Russia tried to resolve the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict
within its ideas. In fact, for Russia the only solution of the
conflict is the Madrid principles and the introduction of troops, only
Russian. Any other move will cause a strong reaction in Moscow.
The fall in oil prices aggravates the economic situation in Russia,
where there are also serious internal problems. In these
circumstances, Russia only needs a victory like the one in Georgia in
2008. So think the U.S. trying to take up their own process that would
keep the parties in an entirely different mood.
There is a global war, and the superpowers use in it the `bogey' of
the hot war to compel the parties to the right decisions.
But wars are not only hot, but also alternative. This is disruption
and obligation to surrender without a fight out of fear. This method
is used now, Americans are using the Chinese method who don't engage
in war, but achieve their goals. And now, Armenia is coerced into
obedience.