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Russia's Paternity
Naira Hayrumyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments26562.html
Published: 13:20:12 - 15/06/2012
Unlike the previous elections in Armenia the upcoming presidential
elections in Armenia will be marked by influence. So far there have
been no doubts that Armenia is a zone of Russia's influence which was
believed eligible to designate or at least affirm candidates to
government in Armenia.
This time the situation is different. The West has an equal
psychological right with Russia to support this or that candidate.
Russia would hardly agree to this so most probably it has some other
plans relating to Armenia. Most probably, the substitution of
Kocharyan with Sargsyan in 2008 copied the Russian developments in
2007, when Medvedev was appointed Putin's `locum tenens' for one term.
It was expected that after one term Kocharyan would also return to the
presidential office.
But something went wrong. Either Serzh Sargsyan broke the `agreement'
and demanded 2 terms, or the March 1, 2008 events hindered the plans,
in the result of which Kocharyan didn't become Prime Minister; or
everything was planned before the elections, but, anyway, after Serzh
Sargsyan had assumed the office, he suddenly turned towards the
Western direction.
This was demonstrated as an important step: in spite of the fact that
Serzh Sargsyan announced about the football diplomacy with Turkey
being in Moscow, just after some time the Americans took the
initiative in their hands and didn't allow the already decided act
happen, according to which, in exchange of opening of the
Armenian-Turkish border, Armenians would have to make concessions on
Karabakh.
After it became known that the Russian plan on the `normalization' of
relations between Armenia and Turkey and Azerbaijan contradicts
Armenia's interests, Russia's undoubted `paternity' in Armenia was
already disputed. Always more people started shifting their views to
the West, understanding that both sides pursue their interests, but
now, the Western ones at least match with the Armenian interests.
The West noticed these changes in Armenia best of all and made an
unprecedented step: it decided not to support the opposition
candidate, like it did in other post-soviet countries, but to bid on
the acting president. Now Russia, if it wants to have its candidate,
will have to fight not only against the West, but also the
administrative machine of Armenia, which may define the outcome of any
elections.
Changed the moods in the Armenia society, Russia got deprived of its
unchanged instrument of neutralization of `other' players. Earlier, it
was enough to leak that this or another politician is an agent of
influence of the West, when that figure lost weight and became almost
a renegade. Just recall Artur Baghdasaryan, who was `charged with' a
meeting with the British ambassador prior to the elections.
Now, the pro-Western position is not accepted as `criminal', moreover,
right the agents of influence of Russia appear in an unbeneficial
situation because now the society thinks from the citizen's position
that the Russian agents of influence lead Armenia to the
`underdeveloped' Eurasia, while the `Westerns' offer comfort and
well-being of Europe.
The legitimization by the West of Serzh Sargsyan's with to go for a
second term has complicated the situation of other candidates even
more. Moreover, it has been legitimized by the equidistance of Armenia
from the West and Russia.
This trend may develop in one direction or another. If the Americans,
along with political support to Serzh Sargsyan provide inflow of
Western investment to the country and neutralize the dominant Russian
capital in Armenia, Armenia may finally and `peacefully' get out of
the post-Soviet imperial space. The trend could turn back only in case
of force majeure - unless, God forbid, bloody events happen, a state
of emergency is declared and `emergency' power is established.
From: Baghdasarian
Naira Hayrumyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments26562.html
Published: 13:20:12 - 15/06/2012
Unlike the previous elections in Armenia the upcoming presidential
elections in Armenia will be marked by influence. So far there have
been no doubts that Armenia is a zone of Russia's influence which was
believed eligible to designate or at least affirm candidates to
government in Armenia.
This time the situation is different. The West has an equal
psychological right with Russia to support this or that candidate.
Russia would hardly agree to this so most probably it has some other
plans relating to Armenia. Most probably, the substitution of
Kocharyan with Sargsyan in 2008 copied the Russian developments in
2007, when Medvedev was appointed Putin's `locum tenens' for one term.
It was expected that after one term Kocharyan would also return to the
presidential office.
But something went wrong. Either Serzh Sargsyan broke the `agreement'
and demanded 2 terms, or the March 1, 2008 events hindered the plans,
in the result of which Kocharyan didn't become Prime Minister; or
everything was planned before the elections, but, anyway, after Serzh
Sargsyan had assumed the office, he suddenly turned towards the
Western direction.
This was demonstrated as an important step: in spite of the fact that
Serzh Sargsyan announced about the football diplomacy with Turkey
being in Moscow, just after some time the Americans took the
initiative in their hands and didn't allow the already decided act
happen, according to which, in exchange of opening of the
Armenian-Turkish border, Armenians would have to make concessions on
Karabakh.
After it became known that the Russian plan on the `normalization' of
relations between Armenia and Turkey and Azerbaijan contradicts
Armenia's interests, Russia's undoubted `paternity' in Armenia was
already disputed. Always more people started shifting their views to
the West, understanding that both sides pursue their interests, but
now, the Western ones at least match with the Armenian interests.
The West noticed these changes in Armenia best of all and made an
unprecedented step: it decided not to support the opposition
candidate, like it did in other post-soviet countries, but to bid on
the acting president. Now Russia, if it wants to have its candidate,
will have to fight not only against the West, but also the
administrative machine of Armenia, which may define the outcome of any
elections.
Changed the moods in the Armenia society, Russia got deprived of its
unchanged instrument of neutralization of `other' players. Earlier, it
was enough to leak that this or another politician is an agent of
influence of the West, when that figure lost weight and became almost
a renegade. Just recall Artur Baghdasaryan, who was `charged with' a
meeting with the British ambassador prior to the elections.
Now, the pro-Western position is not accepted as `criminal', moreover,
right the agents of influence of Russia appear in an unbeneficial
situation because now the society thinks from the citizen's position
that the Russian agents of influence lead Armenia to the
`underdeveloped' Eurasia, while the `Westerns' offer comfort and
well-being of Europe.
The legitimization by the West of Serzh Sargsyan's with to go for a
second term has complicated the situation of other candidates even
more. Moreover, it has been legitimized by the equidistance of Armenia
from the West and Russia.
This trend may develop in one direction or another. If the Americans,
along with political support to Serzh Sargsyan provide inflow of
Western investment to the country and neutralize the dominant Russian
capital in Armenia, Armenia may finally and `peacefully' get out of
the post-Soviet imperial space. The trend could turn back only in case
of force majeure - unless, God forbid, bloody events happen, a state
of emergency is declared and `emergency' power is established.
From: Baghdasarian