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Closer To War Than Peace?: OSCE MG Marks Twenty Years Of Unfruitful

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  • Closer To War Than Peace?: OSCE MG Marks Twenty Years Of Unfruitful

    CLOSER TO WAR THAN PEACE?: OSCE MG MARKS TWENTY YEARS OF UNFRUITFUL NEGOTIATION PROCESS OVER NAGORNO KARABAKH
    By Aris Ghazinyan

    ArmeniaNow
    23.03.12 | 15:30

    Photo: OSCE/Frane Maroevic

    The Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, French Co-chair Jacques Faure,
    alongside Robert Bradtke of the United States, Bernard Fassier of
    France, and Igor Popov of the Russian Federation, during the 18th
    OSCE Ministerial Council, Vilnius, 6 December 2011.

    March 24 marks twenty years since the OSCE Minsk Group was
    established. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union this
    international structure was set out to resolve something that the
    Kremlin had failed to do over the three preceding years - stop the war
    in Nagorno Karabakh and reach a peaceful settlement of the conflict.

    American Co-Chair of OSCE MG Robert Bradtke admitted in this reference,
    when recently summing up the activities of this organization over
    the past two decades, that no tangible progress has been made.

    Indeed, twenty years later the conflict remains unresolved, even the
    fact that active hostilities were suspended in May of 1994, is the
    merit of CIS Inter-parliamentary Assembly, rather that the Minsk Group.

    The international community viewed the Karabakh issue the same way
    the Kremlin leadership had before them.

    If in 1988-1991 soviet Moscow was stating the inadmissibility of
    soviet republics' border repartition, since 1992 the same has been
    repeatedly stated by the United Nations (UN), this time in reference to
    the impossibility of changing the borders of the UN member-countries.

    There is no principal difference between the two approaches. That's
    one major reason why the conflict remains unresolved up until now.

    On March 2, 1992 - three weeks before MG was established - Armenia
    and Azerbaijan joined the UN within the borders of their respective
    soviet republics. As a result, the new political realities in the
    region - declaration of Nagorno Karabakh Republic and its referendum
    of independence - were ignored not only by the soviet, but also the
    international community.

    This was in Baku's interests as the international recognition of the
    Azerbaijani Republic within its soviet borders enabled, and still does,
    the Azeri leadership to present any form of Armenian confrontation as
    "Armenian separatism". The same was true during the soviet regime.

    The United Nations refused to take direct participation in the
    settlement process and entrusted the peacemaking negotiation mission
    on the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), by
    which the Minsk Group was created and has been functioning until today.

    Despite the fact that today the concept of Minsk Group is associated
    with the three co-chairs - Russia, France and the USA, it hasn't
    always been like that. Various countries have been its members:
    Czech Republic, Belarus, Sweden and Italy, Germany and Turkey...

    The institute of three permanent co-chairs finally took shape in 1997,
    but it was a very difficult process.

    The same year, MG co-chairs proposed two options of settlement, both
    of which provided for Nagorno Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. These
    options were accepted by Baku, but rejected by Stepanakert (Nagorno
    Karabakh).

    Yerevan's position was dual: firs president Levon Ter-Petrosyan
    accepted the suggested options, but the Armenian community, including
    political parties and the majority of the cabinet, were categorically
    against them; the situation led to the crisis of power and resignation
    of the first president.

    In the following year of 1998, MG suggested a new option - the
    so-called "Common House", stipulating horizontal relations to be
    established between Baku and Stepanakert, meaning that Azerbaijan
    and Nagorno Karabakh would remain separate countries, but part of
    the same confederation. This time it was Baku's turn to say "No".

    In 2007, the mediators suggested the fourth option of settlement,
    the Madrid Principles.

    As opposed to the preceding ones, this document did not specify Nagorno
    Karabakh's political status and insisted on the withdrawal of the
    Defense Army of Nagorno Karabakh from the five regions around former
    Autonomous Region of Nagorno Karabakh (ARNK), return of refugees and
    displaced people, rehabilitation of communications, and only after that
    (during 15-20 years) holding a referendum to determine the political
    status of Nagorno Karabakh.

    This document, or the amended variants of it, is still on the
    negotiation table.

    Official Yerevan recognizes the Madrid Principles, but with certain
    reservations - the referendum must be held within former ARNK, meaning
    by native Armenian population, which as of the start of the conflict
    made 80 percent of the total population in that region. Hence, from
    Yerevan's perspective, Nagorno Karabakh's future status is obvious.

    Baku speaks against the reservations and wants unconditional
    recognition of all the territories as part of Azerbaijan.

    As a result, two decades after OSCE MG's establishment, the negotiation
    process is still far from being resolved. Moreover, today more than
    before, opinions are voiced on the possible resumption of active
    hostilities.

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