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ZEAEV KHANIN: "FOR ME, AZERBAIJAN IS ISRAEL..."
Vestnik Kavkaza
June 21 2012
Russia
Petr Lukimson, Israel. Exclusively to VK
A leading scientist of the Israeli Ministry of Integration, Zeaev
Khanin, can be called one of Israel's chief experts on problems
of people from the USSR-CIS in Israel, he is also one of the most
in-demand political scientists of the country. Khanin is famous for
his ambiguity and paradoxical statements, although they are always
very precise. Ahead of the visit by the Russian President to Israel,
we asked Mr. Khanin to answer our questions on relations between
Israel and Russia and on the problems of the Middle East and the
Caucasus regions.
- Mr. Khanin, we are at the cusp of the visit by Vladimir Putin to
Israel. There are many questions in the complicated relations between
Russia and Israel. For example, the question of Israel's attitude to
Russia's support for Bashar Assad. Will this issue be discussed at
the meeting of two leaders and in what perspective?
- It should be understood that Israel is not a side in the Syrian
conflict. Israel still has no position on the problem of exactly
what regime would be the most favorable for Syria. It is difficult to
define what alternative is worse for Israel. What remains of Bashar
Assad's regime is bad. However, changing the current regime in favor
of radical Islamist-Sunnis is bad too. Dissolution of the country
into Alawi, Kurdish, Arab and other enclaves and the beginning of
a civil war is bad as well, because the waves of this conflict will
reach the Israeli coast. That is why the Russian position, whatever
it is, cannot be a reason for a worsening of Russian-Israeli relations.
The current armament supplies from Russia to Syria probably prevent
the opposition from gaining victory, but do not touch on interests
of the Israeli Defense Army.
On the other hand, as Russia and China state clearly, they won't
allow intervention in Syria, as there was in Libya, but are ready
to consider some other variants of settlement of the situation in
the country, Israel and Russia gain more and more common points. If
Bashar Assad resigns, but the Ba'ath party and the Alawis remain in
power and new interested forces are allowed to come to power, a new
Syria will appear which will not support the terrorist organization
Hezbollah and stop playing nuclear games for Iran. Will this topic be
discussed during the meeting of Putin and Netanyahu? It will probably
be mentioned, but no more.
- Will topics connected with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and
the Iranian nuclear bomb be discussed?
- It is difficult to call what happens at such meetings
discussions. It is about signing documents, no more. If the leaders of
Israel and Russia have a serious talk, this talk will concern economic
development of bilateral relations. However, they will probably compare
notes on three mentioned problems: the Syrian problem, prospects of
settlement of the Middle East conflict and the attitude to Tehran.
- What will the comparison mean?
- It will show that Russia and Israel don't agree on Syria.
Probably several possible variants of further development will be
defined, but they will be discussed not by Putin and Netanyahu, but
expert groups of the two countries. As for the Palestinian problem,
it will be confirmed that Russia, just like Israel, is satisfied with
the status quo.
Regarding Iran, there might be some statements and even signing of
some documents. However, we will not learn about it on June 25. I
think we won't do so even in a year or a decade. The visit is aimed
at discussion of joint Russian-Israeli projects and strategic deals
in the sphere of the military industry and infrastructure.
- Therefore, a stupid question arises - why is a personal visit by
Putin needed for that? These issues could be dealt at a lower level...
- You are right. But Putin is coming to say "thank you" to Israel
and its foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman for its support in the
presidential and parliamentary elections. I'll remind you that
Lieberman was one of the few international politicians who clearly
stated that the Russian elections were democratic and legitimate,
and Israel accepted Russia's choice. The Israeli media criticized
Lieberman, but life has shown that he made a thoughtful step.
- It seems to me that the people from Russia living in Israel have
fallen into a kind of euphoria connected with Putin's visit. How can
this phenomenon be explained - by the fact that the former Russian
citizens still feel a connection with Russia?
- I don't think so. There are many people in Israel who are concerned
about the so-called "background of the country of origin."
For former Russian citizens, Putin's visit is really important as a
symbol. But any poll will tell you that these views do not influence
their strategic symbols. Despite the common opinion, the natives of
the former Soviet Union in Israel are not a pro-Russian lobby.
According to my research, the share of those who think Israel should
redirect its policy toward Russia and become its main strategic
partner in settlement of the Palestinian conflict is 4%.
The euphoria that appeared ahead of Putin's visit among representatives
of the Russian community is understandable. The same euphoria could
be seen among people of Moroccan origin during the visit to Israel
by the prime minister of this Arab country. Some people were born in
Israel and have never been to Morocco, but they died of happiness.
- How can this phenomenon be explained? Is it some phantom attraction
of the country of origin, where their ancestors had been living
for centuries?
- It is about the well-known sociologic phenomenon: connection
with the country of origin encourages an increase of the status
of the migrants in their own eyes, as well as in the eyes of other
people. This phenomenon is spread among Jewish diasporas in the Western
countries. For example, Canadian Jews feel Israel is very important,
because in Canada a community has a right to existence only if its
representatives clearly know where their historic homeland is.
The Irish have Ireland, the Chinese have China, while the Jews have
Israel. As Russia begins to play an important role in the Middle East,
that promotes the status of the Russian-speaking community in eyes
of the Israeli establishment.
- I cannot help but think of another country that claims to be a
member of the leading players in our region - Turkey. Is there any
chance for normalization of Israel's relations with this country in
the near future?
- As you well know, all possible words have been uttered by Israel
and all possible proposals have been made. The ball is in the Turkish
side of the court.
- Turkey thinks in a different way. Erdogan stated that he waited for
apologies for the Maramara incident and expected material compensation
from Israel to the families of the lost Turkish citizens ...
- The Foreign Ministry's experts and analytical centers believe
that fulfillment of these requirements won't lead to normalization of
relations, but will lead to creating new requirements by Turkey. In the
current ruling circles of Turkey there are no serious intentions to
normalize relations with Israel. Fulfillment of Turkish requirements
could only harm Israel's interests in the long-term. The same
conclusion is made by experts from Brussels and Washington, which
is why Europe and the USA aren't pushing us to normalize relations
with Turkey. Today only a small group of Israeli businessmen who
have business in Turkey insist on normalization of relations with
this country.
- But what country could be an alternative for Israeli-Turkish
relations? Azerbaijan?
- What do you mean "could be"?! It has already happened.
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, two Muslim pro-Western states, became a
nice alternative to our relations with Turkey in the Turkic world. And
our parliament will recognize the so-called Armenian massacre of 1915
only after Armeni makes peace with Azerbaijan.
- Is this possible? What do you think?
- I think it is quite possible, if a model of regional development
is created that guarantees the Armenians a speedy growth in living
standards in their country and establishes conditions under which its
partnership with the EU will bring it benefits, while its partnership
with Iran will turn into a failure. However, I don't think Armenia
and Azerbaijan will make peace in the foreseeable future.
- What position should Israel take on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
- It is not our sphere, and it doesn't touch on us. Israel is a
technological, space, and economic, but not geopolitical superpower.
We don't interfere in a conflict if it doesn't concern our interests.
- Probably if the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is
settled, the international community will pressure Israel to settle
the conflict with Palestine according to the same model. What will
this mean for Israel?
- It depends what we are comparing - which side in the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resembles your Israel and which side -
the Arabs.
- Sorry, but we both are Jews. What do you think?
- I think Israel plays the role of Azerbaijan. It is obvious.
- Why do you think so?
- It is simple. The modern world lives according to the principle
of nations' right to self-determination within the inviolability of
post-war and colonial boundaries. The state of Israel was established
under this principle. If the principle is violated, all decisions
made by the international community after the Second World War on
establishing of national states should be doubted. The principle is
applied to the boundaries of the former Soviet republics.
That is why an attempt to occupy a part of Azerbaijan's territory
by Armenia is similar to attempts by the Arab world to legitimise
the state of Palestine, which has never existed. In this situation,
Israel is interested in preservation of the territorial integrity of
Azerbaijan within the boundaries of the Soviet period. Any other result
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict threatens Israel and the whole world.
Vestnik Kavkaza
June 21 2012
Russia
Petr Lukimson, Israel. Exclusively to VK
A leading scientist of the Israeli Ministry of Integration, Zeaev
Khanin, can be called one of Israel's chief experts on problems
of people from the USSR-CIS in Israel, he is also one of the most
in-demand political scientists of the country. Khanin is famous for
his ambiguity and paradoxical statements, although they are always
very precise. Ahead of the visit by the Russian President to Israel,
we asked Mr. Khanin to answer our questions on relations between
Israel and Russia and on the problems of the Middle East and the
Caucasus regions.
- Mr. Khanin, we are at the cusp of the visit by Vladimir Putin to
Israel. There are many questions in the complicated relations between
Russia and Israel. For example, the question of Israel's attitude to
Russia's support for Bashar Assad. Will this issue be discussed at
the meeting of two leaders and in what perspective?
- It should be understood that Israel is not a side in the Syrian
conflict. Israel still has no position on the problem of exactly
what regime would be the most favorable for Syria. It is difficult to
define what alternative is worse for Israel. What remains of Bashar
Assad's regime is bad. However, changing the current regime in favor
of radical Islamist-Sunnis is bad too. Dissolution of the country
into Alawi, Kurdish, Arab and other enclaves and the beginning of
a civil war is bad as well, because the waves of this conflict will
reach the Israeli coast. That is why the Russian position, whatever
it is, cannot be a reason for a worsening of Russian-Israeli relations.
The current armament supplies from Russia to Syria probably prevent
the opposition from gaining victory, but do not touch on interests
of the Israeli Defense Army.
On the other hand, as Russia and China state clearly, they won't
allow intervention in Syria, as there was in Libya, but are ready
to consider some other variants of settlement of the situation in
the country, Israel and Russia gain more and more common points. If
Bashar Assad resigns, but the Ba'ath party and the Alawis remain in
power and new interested forces are allowed to come to power, a new
Syria will appear which will not support the terrorist organization
Hezbollah and stop playing nuclear games for Iran. Will this topic be
discussed during the meeting of Putin and Netanyahu? It will probably
be mentioned, but no more.
- Will topics connected with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and
the Iranian nuclear bomb be discussed?
- It is difficult to call what happens at such meetings
discussions. It is about signing documents, no more. If the leaders of
Israel and Russia have a serious talk, this talk will concern economic
development of bilateral relations. However, they will probably compare
notes on three mentioned problems: the Syrian problem, prospects of
settlement of the Middle East conflict and the attitude to Tehran.
- What will the comparison mean?
- It will show that Russia and Israel don't agree on Syria.
Probably several possible variants of further development will be
defined, but they will be discussed not by Putin and Netanyahu, but
expert groups of the two countries. As for the Palestinian problem,
it will be confirmed that Russia, just like Israel, is satisfied with
the status quo.
Regarding Iran, there might be some statements and even signing of
some documents. However, we will not learn about it on June 25. I
think we won't do so even in a year or a decade. The visit is aimed
at discussion of joint Russian-Israeli projects and strategic deals
in the sphere of the military industry and infrastructure.
- Therefore, a stupid question arises - why is a personal visit by
Putin needed for that? These issues could be dealt at a lower level...
- You are right. But Putin is coming to say "thank you" to Israel
and its foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman for its support in the
presidential and parliamentary elections. I'll remind you that
Lieberman was one of the few international politicians who clearly
stated that the Russian elections were democratic and legitimate,
and Israel accepted Russia's choice. The Israeli media criticized
Lieberman, but life has shown that he made a thoughtful step.
- It seems to me that the people from Russia living in Israel have
fallen into a kind of euphoria connected with Putin's visit. How can
this phenomenon be explained - by the fact that the former Russian
citizens still feel a connection with Russia?
- I don't think so. There are many people in Israel who are concerned
about the so-called "background of the country of origin."
For former Russian citizens, Putin's visit is really important as a
symbol. But any poll will tell you that these views do not influence
their strategic symbols. Despite the common opinion, the natives of
the former Soviet Union in Israel are not a pro-Russian lobby.
According to my research, the share of those who think Israel should
redirect its policy toward Russia and become its main strategic
partner in settlement of the Palestinian conflict is 4%.
The euphoria that appeared ahead of Putin's visit among representatives
of the Russian community is understandable. The same euphoria could
be seen among people of Moroccan origin during the visit to Israel
by the prime minister of this Arab country. Some people were born in
Israel and have never been to Morocco, but they died of happiness.
- How can this phenomenon be explained? Is it some phantom attraction
of the country of origin, where their ancestors had been living
for centuries?
- It is about the well-known sociologic phenomenon: connection
with the country of origin encourages an increase of the status
of the migrants in their own eyes, as well as in the eyes of other
people. This phenomenon is spread among Jewish diasporas in the Western
countries. For example, Canadian Jews feel Israel is very important,
because in Canada a community has a right to existence only if its
representatives clearly know where their historic homeland is.
The Irish have Ireland, the Chinese have China, while the Jews have
Israel. As Russia begins to play an important role in the Middle East,
that promotes the status of the Russian-speaking community in eyes
of the Israeli establishment.
- I cannot help but think of another country that claims to be a
member of the leading players in our region - Turkey. Is there any
chance for normalization of Israel's relations with this country in
the near future?
- As you well know, all possible words have been uttered by Israel
and all possible proposals have been made. The ball is in the Turkish
side of the court.
- Turkey thinks in a different way. Erdogan stated that he waited for
apologies for the Maramara incident and expected material compensation
from Israel to the families of the lost Turkish citizens ...
- The Foreign Ministry's experts and analytical centers believe
that fulfillment of these requirements won't lead to normalization of
relations, but will lead to creating new requirements by Turkey. In the
current ruling circles of Turkey there are no serious intentions to
normalize relations with Israel. Fulfillment of Turkish requirements
could only harm Israel's interests in the long-term. The same
conclusion is made by experts from Brussels and Washington, which
is why Europe and the USA aren't pushing us to normalize relations
with Turkey. Today only a small group of Israeli businessmen who
have business in Turkey insist on normalization of relations with
this country.
- But what country could be an alternative for Israeli-Turkish
relations? Azerbaijan?
- What do you mean "could be"?! It has already happened.
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, two Muslim pro-Western states, became a
nice alternative to our relations with Turkey in the Turkic world. And
our parliament will recognize the so-called Armenian massacre of 1915
only after Armeni makes peace with Azerbaijan.
- Is this possible? What do you think?
- I think it is quite possible, if a model of regional development
is created that guarantees the Armenians a speedy growth in living
standards in their country and establishes conditions under which its
partnership with the EU will bring it benefits, while its partnership
with Iran will turn into a failure. However, I don't think Armenia
and Azerbaijan will make peace in the foreseeable future.
- What position should Israel take on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
- It is not our sphere, and it doesn't touch on us. Israel is a
technological, space, and economic, but not geopolitical superpower.
We don't interfere in a conflict if it doesn't concern our interests.
- Probably if the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is
settled, the international community will pressure Israel to settle
the conflict with Palestine according to the same model. What will
this mean for Israel?
- It depends what we are comparing - which side in the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resembles your Israel and which side -
the Arabs.
- Sorry, but we both are Jews. What do you think?
- I think Israel plays the role of Azerbaijan. It is obvious.
- Why do you think so?
- It is simple. The modern world lives according to the principle
of nations' right to self-determination within the inviolability of
post-war and colonial boundaries. The state of Israel was established
under this principle. If the principle is violated, all decisions
made by the international community after the Second World War on
establishing of national states should be doubted. The principle is
applied to the boundaries of the former Soviet republics.
That is why an attempt to occupy a part of Azerbaijan's territory
by Armenia is similar to attempts by the Arab world to legitimise
the state of Palestine, which has never existed. In this situation,
Israel is interested in preservation of the territorial integrity of
Azerbaijan within the boundaries of the Soviet period. Any other result
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict threatens Israel and the whole world.